The Framingham Crap Shoot

The Framingham risk score is a risk-assessment tool that has become the basis for heart disease prediction used by practicing physicians.

The Framingham system determines that:

· 35% of the adult population in the U.S., or 70 million, is deemed “low-risk.” Low-risk is defined as the absence of standard risk factors for heart disease; low-risk persons have no more than a 1-in-20 chance (5%) of dying from heart disease in the next 10 years. Physicians are advised by the American Heart Association (AHA) and its experts that no specific effort at risk reduction is necessary.

· 25%, or approximately 50 million, U.S. adults are deemed “high-risk,” based on the presence of 2 or more risk factors. High-risk persons experience a 20%-30% likelihood of heart attack in the next 10 years. People at high-risk are candidates for preventive efforts according to the guidelines set by the Adult Treatment Panel-III (Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults; ATP-III) for cholesterol-reducing statin drug treatment and for “lifestyle-modifying” advice.

· The remaining 40% of the adult population, or 80 million people, are judged “intermediate-risk,” with the likelihood of heart attack between 5-20% over the next 10 years. This group should receive preventive advice and might be considered for statin drug treatment.


Let’s do some arithmetic. By the above scheme, the low-risk population will experience 3,500,000 heart attacks over the next decade, or 350,000 heart attacks per year.

The intermediate-risk population (without preventive treatment) will experience 8,000,000 heart attacks over the 10-year time period, or 800,000 per year.

The high-risk population, the group most likely to receive standard advice on diet, exercise, and be prescribed statin cholesterol drugs, will have their risk reduced by 35% by preventive efforts over the 10-year period. This means that heart attacks over 10 years will be reduced from 12,500,000 to 8,125,000 by standard prevention efforts, or reduced to 812,500 heart attacks per year.

These numbers are no secret. They are well known facts that have simply come to be accepted by the medical community. In other words, the standard approach to heart attack prediction makes the fact that two million people will succumb to cardiovascular events in the next year no mystery. This exercise in prediction is coldly accurate when applied to a large population.

The problem is that this approach cannot reliably distinguish which individuals will have a heart attack from those who will not.

From 100 people chosen at random, for instance, the numbers game played above will not confidently identify who among those 100 will have a heart attack, who will not, who will develop anginal chest pains and end up with stents or bypass surgery, or who will die. We just know that some of them will. Some people at high risk will have a heart attack, some people at intermediate risk will have a heart attack, some people at low risk will have a heart attack.

For any specific individual (like you or me), it’s a crap shoot.

That's why precise individual measurement of cardiovascular risk is required for real risk assessment, not applying broad statistical observations and forcing them to conform to the unique life of a specific individual, particularly risk calculators with as few risk parameters as the Framingham risk score.

At what score should a heart catheterization be performed?

That's easy: NONE.

(Although I've addressed this previously, the question has come up again many times and I thought it'd be worth repeating.)

In other words, no heart scan score--100, 500, 1000, 5000--should lead automatically to procedures in someone who underwent a heart scan but has no symptoms.

This question is a common point of confusion.

In other words, is there a specific cut-off that automatically triggers a need for catheterization?

In my view, there is no such score. We can't say, for instance, that everybody with a score above 1000 should have a catheterization. It is true that the higher your score, the greater the likelihood of a plaque blocking flow. A score of 1000 carries an approximately 25-30% likelihood of reduced blood flow sufficient to consider a stent or bypass. This can nearly always be settled with a stress test. Recall that, despite their pitfalls for uncovering hidden heart disease in the first place, stress tests are useful as gauges of coronary blood flow.

But even a score of 1000 carries a 70-75% likelihood that a procedure will not be necessary. This is too high to justify doing heart catheterizations willy-nilly.

Unfortunately, some of my colleagues will say that any heart scan score justifies a heart cath. I believe this is absolutely, unquestionably, and inexcusably wrong. More often than not, this attitude is borne out of ignorance, laziness, or a desire for profit.

Does every lump or bump justify surgery, radiation, and chemotherapy on the chance it could represent cancer? Of course not. There is indeed a time and place for these things, but judgment is involved.

In my view, no heart scan score should automatically prompt a major heart procedure like heart catheterization in a person without symptoms. If a stress test is normal, signifying normal coronary flow (and there are no other abnormal phenomena, such as abnormal left ventricular function), then there is no defensible rationale for heart procedures. Heart procedures like stents and bypass cannot prevent heart attacks in future; they can only restore flow when flow is poor, or stop the heart attack that is about to occur.

However, EVERY heart scan score above zero is a reason to engage in a program of prevention.

"It's genetic"

At 53, Sam had been through the wringer with heart disease. After his first heart attack at age 50, he'd undergone four heart catheterizations, 5 stents, and, most recently, a bypass operation. He came to us to see if there was a better solution.

After hearing Sam's story, I asked,"Did your doctors suggest to you why you had heart disease?"

"Well, they said it was genetic, since my father went through the same thing in his early 50s, though he died after his second heart attack at age 54. They said it was bad luck and nothing could be done about it."

Though Sam's case is more dramatic than most, I hear this argument every day: Risk for heart disease is genetic.

It's true: There are indeed multiple reasons for inheriting causes for coronary heart disease, genes that heighten inflammatory responses, oxidative responses, modify lipoprotein particles, increase blood pressure, etc. There has even been some excitement over developing chromosomal markers for heightened risk.

That's all well and fine, but what can we do about it today?

In practical life, many inherited genetic patterns can be expressed in ways that you and I can identify--and correct. They are not chromosomal markers, but end products of genetic patterns. (Although there are indeed identifiable chromosomal markers, they have not yet led to meaningful treatments to my knowledge.)

These readily identifiable patterns include:

--Lipoprotein(a)--Clearly genetically transmitted, passed from mother or father to each child with a 50% likelihood, then you onto your children if you have it.

--Small LDL--Although small LDL is amplified by high-carbohydrate diets and obesity, it can also occur in slender people who do not indulge in carbohydrates --i.e., a genetic tendency. Or, it can be a combination of poor lifestyle magnifying the genetic tendency for small LDL.

--Low HDL--Particularly the extremes of low HDL below 30 mg/dl. (Although, interestingly, I am seeing more of these people, though not all, respond to vitamin D replacement. Perhaps an important subgroup of low HDL people are really Vitamin D Receptor (VDR) variants.)

--ApoE--Two variants are relevant: ApoE2 and ApoE4. In my experience, it's the E2 that carries far greater significance, though the data are somewhat scanty. ApoE4 people are more sensitive to the fats in their diet (greater rises in LDL with fats; thus, some people advocate a tighter saturated fat restriction with this pattern, though I am not convinced that is the best solution), while ApoE2 people are exceptionally sensitive to carbohydrates, develop extravagant increases in triglycerides, and are very diabetes-prone with even the most minimal weight gain. If two "doses" of the E2 gene are present (homozygotic), then the tendencies are very exagerrated. E4 people are also subject to greater likelihood of Alzheimer's, though it is not a certain risk in a specific individual.

--Postprandial disorders--We use the fasting intermediate-density lipoprotein (IDL) as an easy, obtainable index of the ability to clear after-eating byproducts of meals from the blood. Increased IDL has been related to increased coronary, carotid, and aortic aneurysmal disease.

--Hypertriglyceridemia-i.e., increases in triglycerides, While not all forms of high triglycerides confer risk for atherosclerosis, many do, particularly if associated with IDL, small LDL, increased LDL particle number and/or apoB.


There are more, but you get the point. There are clear-cut genetically-transmitted reasons for greater risk for cardiovascular disease. Some, like lipoprotein(a), yield very high risk. Others, like increased triglycerides, yield mixed levels of risk.

Importantly, all of these patterns--ALL--are identifiable and are treatable. Treatment may not always be the easiest thing, but they are treatable nonetheless. While lipoprotein(a), for instance, is the most difficult pattern to correct in the above list, I remind everyone that our current "record holder" for reversal of plaque and heart scan scores--63% reduction--has lipoprotein(a) that we corrected.

If you've been told that your risk for cardiovascular disease or coronary plaque is "genetic" and thereby uncorrectable and hopeless, run the other direction as fast as you can. Get another opinion from someone willing to take the modest effort to tell you precisely why.

Tim Russert Revisited

A Heart Scan Blog reader brought this piece by Dr. MacDougall to my attention.

Dr. MacDougall created a fictitious posthumous conversation between himself and the late Tim Russert. MacDougall paints a picture of a hardworking, hard-living man who adhered to an overindulgent lifestyle of excessive eating. He concludes that a vegetarian, low-fat diet would have saved his life.

Beyond being disrespectful, I would differ with Dr. MacDougall’s assessment. In fact, I’ve heard an interview with Mr. Russert’s primary care physician in which the doctor claimed that Mr. Russert had been counseled on the need for a low-fat diet and, in fact, adhered to it quite seriously. Far from being an overindulgent, overeating gourmand, he followed the dictates of conventional dietary wisdom according to the American Heart Association. The low-fat diet articulated by Dr. MacDougall is simply a little more strict than that followed by Mr. Russert.

What exactly could Mr. Russert have done to prolong his life? Several basic strategies:

--Added fish oil. This simple strategy alone would have reduced the likelihood of dying suddenly by almost half.

--Eliminated wheat and cornstarch—Mr. Russert developed diabetes in the last few years of his life. By definition, diabetes is an inability to handle sugars and sugar-equivalents. Wheat and cornstarch yield immediate and substantial surges in blood sugar greater than table sugar; elimination causes weight to plummet, blood sugar to drop, and diabetes (at least in its early phases) can be eliminated in many people, particularly those beginning with substantial excess weight.

Just those two strategies alone would more than likely have avoided the tragic death that brought Mr. Russert’s wonderful life and career to an abrupt end.

Of course, he could have even taken his heart health program even further, as we do in the Track Your Plaque program. While the conversation has focused on how to avoid tragic events like sudden cardiac death, why not take it a step farther and ask, "How can coronary plaque be measured, tracked, and reversed?"

In that vein, Mr. Rusert could have restored vitamin D to normal levels; identified all hidden sources of heart disease using lipoprotein testing (though he had small LDL without a doubt, given his generous waist size, HDL of 36 mg/dl and high triglycerides); considered niacin. Simple, yet literally lifesaving efforts, that make reversal much more likely.

Those simple steps, in fact, would have tipped the scales heavily in Mr. Russert’s favor, making a heart attack and/or sudden death from heart disease exceptionally unlikely.

Water: Bottled vs. tap

The Fanatic Cook has a great post discussing the findings of the Environmental Working Group (EWG) on the quality of bottled water.

The full text of the study from the EWG can be viewed here.

They report that "the bottled water industry promotes an image of purity, but comprehensive testing by the Environmental Working Group (EWG) reveals a surprising array of chemical contaminants in every bottled water brand analyzed" . . . After analyzing 10 brands, they conclude that "tests strongly indicate that the purity of bottled water cannot be trusted. Given the industry's refusal to make available data to support their claims of superiority, consumer confidence in the purity of bottled water is simply not justified."

"EWG's study has revealed that bottled water can contain complex mixtures of industrial chemicals never tested for safety, and may be no cleaner than tap water. Given some bottled water company's failure to adhere to the industry's own purity standards, Americans cannot take the quality of bottled water for granted. Indeed, test results like those presented in this study may give many Americans reason enough to reconsider their habit of purchasing bottled water and turn back to the tap."


For these reasons, as well as environmental reasons (plastic bottles filling up dumpsites), I think it is becoming clearer and clearer that bottled water is something we should only use in a pinch, not habitually.

Can CRP be reduced?

The JUPITER study has sparked a lot of discussion about c-reactive protein, or CRP.

If we follow the line of reasoning that prompted this study, reducing CRP may correlate with reduction of cardiovascular events. Thus, in the JUPITER study, Crestor 20 mg per day reduced cardiovascular events by nearly half.

From a CRP perspective, starting values were 4.2 mg/dl in the Crestor group of the trial, 4.3 mg/dl in the placebo group. After 24 months, CRP in the Crestor group was 2.2 mg/dl, 3.5 mg/dl in the placebo group, representing a 37% reduction.

Now, in our Track Your Plaque program--an experience that has yielded the virtual ELIMINATION of cardiovascular events--we aim for a CRP level of 1.0 mg/dl or less, ideally 0.5 mg/dl or less. The majority of people achieve these ambitious levels. In fact, it is a rare person who does not.

How do we achieve dramatic reductions in CRP? We use:

--Weight loss through elimination of wheat and cornstarch--This yields impressive reductions.

--Vitamin D--I have no doubt whatsoever of vitamin D's capacity to exert potent anti-inflammatory effects. I am not entirely sure why this happens (enhanced sensitivity to insulin, reduced expression of tissue inflammatory proteins like matrix metalloproteinase and others, etc.), but the effect is profound.

--Elimination of junk foods--like candies, cookies, pretzels, rice cakes, potato chips, etc.

--Exercise--Amplifies the benefits of diet on CRP reduction.

--Not allowing saturated fats to dominate--Yes, yes, I know. The demonization of saturated fat conversation has been largely replaced by the Taubesian saturated fat has not been confidently linked to heart disease conversation. But controlled feeding studies, in which a single component of diet is manipulated (e.g., saturated vs. monounsaturated vs. polyunsaturated fat) have clearly shown that saturated fats do activate several factors in the inflammatory response.

--Fish oil--Though I am a firm believer in the huge benefits of omega-3 fatty acid supplementation/restoration, the anti-inflammatory effect is modest from a CRP perspective. However, there are anti-inflammatory benefits beyond that of simple CRP (via normalization of eicosanoid metabolism and other pathways).

--Weight loss--A BIG effect. Weight loss drops CRP like a stone. The CRP-reducing effect is especially large if achieved via carbohydrate reduction.

Of course, this is much more complicated than taking a pill. But it is effective to achieve health benefits outside of cardiovascular risk, is enormously useful as part of a weight loss effort, and doesn't cost $1400 per year like Crestor.

In short, if CRP reduction is the goal, it certainly does not have to involve Crestor.

CRP and Jupiter

What is C-reactive protein (CRP)?

It is a blood-borne protein that originates in the liver and serves as an index of the body's inflammatory state. It is triggered by yet another inflammatory signal molecule, interleukin-6.

What triggers this cascade of inflammatory markers? Any inflammatory stimulus, such as being overweight, lack of exercise, vitamin D deficiency, viral illness no matter how trivial, any inflammatory disease like arthritis, small LDL, high triglycerides, poor diet rich in processed foods, resistance to insulin, any injury, incipient diabetes, hidden cancer, lack of education (no kidding), etc.

In other words, many, many conditions, from trivial to serious, trigger increased inflammatory markers like CRP.

A recent analysis (Genetically elevated C-reactive protein and ischemic vascular disease of persons with genetically elevated levels of CRP) suggests that CRP does not, by itself, cause atherosclerotic disease. CRP is therefore simply a marker for conditions that heighten inflammatory responses.

The AstraZeneca people sponsored the enormous JUPITER study of the statin drug, Crestor, that has been causing a stir, mostly glowing pronouncements of how the world would be a better place if everyone took Crestor.

In JUPITER, nealry 18,000 people (men 50 years and over, women 60 years and over) took 20 mg per day Crestor for two years. Participants all had starting LDL cholesterols in the "normal" range of no higher than 130 mg/dl and elevated CRP of 2 mg/dl or greater.

Crestor treatment resulted in 44% reduction in nonfatal heart attack, nonfatal stroke, hospitalization for unstable angina, revascularization (bypass surgery, stents) and death from cardiovascular causes. The reduction in nonfatal heart attack was most marked at 55%.

Admittedly, these are impressive results. Benefits held true for both males and females. At the very least, JUPITER should put to rest some of the fringe arguments that statins do not reduce cardiovascular events. They do. There is no sense in arguing against that. While we might argue about the value of statins in various subsets of people, there is no doubt that they do indeed exert a significant effect.

However, contrary to the hype and broad pronouncements of my colleagues, my concerns are:

1) Rather than shotgun the inflammatory response with a statin drug regardless of cause, doesn't it make more sense to ask why a specific individual has an increased CRP in the first place? For instance, if the answer is vitamin D deficiency, doesn't correction of the deficiency make more sense? (Vitamin D by itself reduces CRP around 60%--more than statin drugs.) Not to mention you obtain all the extraordinary benefits of vitamin D restoration, such as reduced cancer risk, increased bone density, relief from winter "blues," rise in HDL, etc. How about junk foods, obesity, and unrelated inflammatory conditions? Would we therefore indirectly be treating obesity with Crestor?

2) Crestor 20 mg per day, contrary to the study and to many statin studies, will not be tolerated for long by the majority. Muscles aches are not common--they are inevitable, sometimes incapacitating. While JUPITER showed 15% of both treatment and placebo groups experienced muscle effects--no different--this is wildly contrary to real life.

3) While there was a 55% reduction in the number of heart attacks, there continued to be a substantial number of heart attacks in the Crestor treatment arm. Clearly, reduction of CRP with Crestor, while helpful, is not a cure.

I view studies like JUPITER as simply an interesting piece of semi-scientific evidence, tainted to an unknown degree by commercial interests (including those of Dr. Paul Ridker, one of the principal investigators). It is not a mandate to use Crestor carte blanche in people with elevations of CRP.

My interpretation of these data in a practical sense is that Crestor 20 mg per day as sole therapy is useful in a disinterested, non-compliant patient who is unwilling to make substantial changes in lifestyle and nutrition. Helpful? Yes, but hardly an invitation for the world to take Crestor.

I believe that doesn't include any of the readers of this blog.

Nutritional approaches: Large vs. small LDL














It is now a rare person who does not have at least some proportion of their LDL cholesterol as small particles. I estimate that, of the people who come to the office or report their data on the Track Your Plaque website, 90% have at least 40-50% small LDL particles. Some people have 100% small LDL particles. The sample NMR lipoprotein report shows the result for someone with a severe small LDL pattern (the tallest red bar labeled 1354 nmol/L, compared to the 74 nmol/L of the tiny red bar of large LDL.)

The nutritional approach for small vs. large LDL differs. Small LDL particles are most sensitive to carbohydrate intake; large LDL particles are more sensitive to saturated fats.

The conventional "heart healthy" diet that restricts saturated fat reduces large LDL but exerts no effect on small LDL. Thus, a diet that is restricted in saturated fat and weighed more heavily with "healthy whole grains" triggers small LDL particles. Followers of the conversations here recognize that small LDL particles are flagrant triggers for coronary plaque; they have, in fact, become the number one most common cause for heart disease in the U.S.

When you have lipoproteins tested, you can therefore gauge the likely result obtained when specific dietary changes are made. Follow the low saturated fat advice, large LDL will drop modestly, but small LDL skyrockets.













(Image courtesy Liposcience, Inc.)


Eliminate sugars, wheat, and cornstarch and you will see small LDL plummet (along with total LDL).

As an aside, my personal observation is that the "need" for statin cholesterol drugs can be reduced dramatically by paying attention to this important LDL size distinction.

Factory hospitals

Twenty years ago, the American farming industry experienced a dilemma: How to grow more soybeans, corn, or wheat from a limited amount of farmland, raise more cattle and hogs in a shorter period of time, fatter and ready for slaughter within months rather than years?













(Image courtesy Wikipedia)

The solution: Synthetically fertilize farmland for greater crop yield; “factory farms” for livestock in which chickens or pigs are crammed into tiny cages that leave no room to turn, cattle packed tightly into manure-filled paddocks. As author Michael Pollan put it in his candid look at American health and eating, The Omnivore’s Dilemma:


“To visit a modern Concentrated Animal Feeding Operation (CAFO) is to enter a world that for all its technological sophistication is still designed on seventeenth-century Cartesian principles: Animals are treated as machines—“production units”—incapable of feeling pain. Since no thinking person can possibly believe this anymore, industrial animal agriculture depends on a suspension of disbelief on the part of the people who operate it and a willingness to avert one’s eyes on the part of everyone else. . .”


Pollan goes on to argue that the cultural distance inserted between the brutal factory farm existence of livestock and your dinner table permits this to continue:


“. . .the life of the pig has moved out of view; when’s the last time you saw a pig in person? Meat comes from the grocery store, where it is cut and packaged to look as little like parts of animals as possible. The disappearance of animals from our lives has opened a space in which there’s no reality check on the sentiment or the brutality . . .”


The same disconnect has occurred in healthcare for the heart. The emotional distance thrust between the hospital-employed primary care physician, the procedure-driven cardiologist, the crammed-into-a-niche electrophysiologist (heart rhythm specialist) or cardiothoracic surgeon whose principal concerns are procedures—with an eye always towards litigation risk—mimics factory farms that now litter the landscape of the Midwest. The hospitals and doctors who deliver the process see us less as human beings and more as the next profit opportunity.

The “factory hospital” has allowed the subjugation of humans into the service of procedural volume, all in the name of fattening revenues. Never mind that people are not (usually) killed outright but subjected to a succession of life-disrupting procedures over many years. But whether livestock in a factory farm or humans in a factory hospital, the net result to the people controlling the process is identical: increased profits.

The system doesn’t grow to meet market demand, but to grow profits. The myth that allows this growth is perpetuated by the participants who stand to gain from that growth.

See hospitals for what they are: businesses. Despite most hospitals retaining "Saint" in their name, there is no longer anything saintly or charitable about these commercial operations. They are ever bit as profit-seeking as GE, Enron, or Mobil.

Medicare and The Law of Unintended Consequences

This post carries on the line of conversation begun in The Origins of Heart Catheterization: Part I and Part II.



While Dr. Sones labored in the relative obscurity of his catheterization laboratory, the American public was experiencing a crisis in healthcare availability, particularly among the over-65 age group. The population of elderly in the U.S. was growing rapidly. Between 1950 and 1963, their ranks grew from 12 million to 17.5 million. The cost of hospital care was also increasing 6.7% annually, several times the rate of increase in the cost of living of the time. From 1950 to the day of Dr. Sones’ discovery, the average cost for a day in the hospital jumped from $29 to $40. As a result, private health insurance carriers were forced to increase rates, driving premiums higher and farther out of reach for many. Half of all elderly were uninsured. Many feared that, while the sophistication of medical services advanced, healthcare was becoming increasingly unavailable to many, perhaps most, Americans.

The pivotal contribution that ignited wide dissemination of healthcare technology didn’t come from a physician, nor someone in healthcare. It was spurred by a nearly-forgotten bureaucrat. Without the behind-the-scenes laboring of this one man, the present healthcare system might be quite different.

It was largely the work of Nelson H. Cruikshank, an ordained Methodist minister with a Master of Divinity degree and veteran of battling for rights of the elderly and poor deprived of health care. For 10 years, Cruikshank served as director of the AFL-CIO's Social Security Department and had been instrumental in getting the Social Security Disability act passed. Working on the side of organized labor but maintaining the public demeanor of a church pastor, Cruikshank gained a reputation as a fighter for the working man, one who didn’t back down from a political brawl. In an interview regarding the question of corporate-retained earnings for capital investment, he blasted the practice, calling it "taxation by corporation without representation. Through prices paid for consumer goods, buyers are providing capital for industries over which they have no control and from which they receive no dividends” (Time Magazine, Dec. 20, 1948).

For years, Cruikshank lobbied tirelessly on behalf of American unions to bring the new national healthcare bill, known as Medicare, to a vote on the floor of Congress. Numerous efforts at a national program had languished for a decade before Medicare was drafted, and the Medicare legislation remained bottlenecked for years in committees. Cruikshank’s relentless and forceful persuasion was instrumental in finally bringing the bill to a vote. Among the most vocal opponents Cruikshank parried was the American Medical Association (AMA), terrified that the new program would lead to loss of control over healthcare delivery and reimbursement. The AMA labeled Medicare "the most deadly challenge ever faced by the medical profession."

Cruikshank proved how tough he was when he faced off with Dr Morris Fishbein, then president of the AMA, in a radio debate. Oscar R. Ewing, attorney and Democratic political organizer under the Truman administration, offered these reminiscences of the debate:

“Dr. Fishbein described the horrible confusion that existed in the [government-run] British Health Service that had recently been established in Britain. He told of the utter confusion that he found existed when he was in England a few weeks previously; that there were long queues in every doctor's office, that doctors were overburdened with paper work; that a mother who wanted an extra allowance of milk for her sick child had to get a doctor's prescription for it and then go to the Health Department for permission to buy the milk. Dr. Fishbein painted a picture of complete confusion.

“After Dr. Fishbein had described all these horrible details he found existing when in England a few weeks earlier, Mr. Cruikshank pulled out this particular diary [published in a nationally-syndicated column called “Dr. Fishbein's Diary” ] of Dr. Fishbein in which he described his last visit to London. He had arrived in London Friday morning and that afternoon had gone out to spend the weekend with Lord and Lady so-and-so at their country place; that he'd come back to London Monday morning, had stopped by the Health Department to pick up some papers, and had gone on to catch the noon plane for Paris. So the questioner then asked, "Well, is your appraisal of the British Health Service based on those few hours in London?" The question was a stinger and pretty much discredited Dr. Fishbein.”


(Interview by Mr. J.R. Fuchs, April 29, 1969; Harry S. Truman Library Archives)



Cruikshank went on to point out that Dr. Fishbein had indeed never visited the offices of British general practitioners and had spent his brief stay in the company of British aristocracy, attending the Olympics, then making the rounds of Parisian night clubs. Fishbein stumbled through the remainder of the interview, trying unsuccessfully to cover up his gaff. Dr. Fishbein was forced out of his post as AMA president by his peers shortly following the humiliating episode.

Largely due to the years of behind-the-scenes maneuvering by Mr. Cruikshank, on July 30, 1965, President Lyndon Johnson signed the Social Security Amendment that enacted the Medicare program. The legislation that survived into law included Medicare Part A, the portion of the program providing payment for hospital-based diagnostic and treatment services, and Medicare Part B, allowing payment for office-based services and outpatient diagnostic tests.

Finally, after decades of political battles, a national healthcare bill had been passed. Although benefits were restricted to only those eligible for Social Security benefits, it represented a start, a first step toward greater access to healthcare for the broader American public.

At first, the full implications of the Medicare program were not apparent. But as healthcare technology advanced, including that sparked by Sones’ innovation in coronary imaging, Medicare, much as engineered in large part by Nelson Cruikshank, proved a bonanza of payment for heart procedures. Medicare also set the pace for the payment for procedures by non-government, private health insurance.

Thus the stage was set. Thanks to Medicare, over the next 40 years cardiovascular healthcare services, yielding generous revenue for practitioners and hospitals, exploded on the scene, much to the surprise of many, including the AMA. When then president of the American College of Cardiology, Dr. Charles Fisch, was asked how the passage of Medicare affected cardiology, he replied, “It made cardiologists rich, as simple as that” (American Cardiology: The History of a Specialty and Its College, W. Bruce Fye, MD). Indeed, from its introduction in 1965 to 1980, Medicare payments for health claims ballooned 10-fold from $9.6 billion to $105.7 billion, a substantial portion of which went to pay for cardiology claims.

Little did Nelson Cruikshank, ministerial defender of the working man, anticipate that the Medicare he helped engineer would prove to be the catalyst for explosive growth of the modern cardiovascular healthcare system. Ironically, the program of healthcare-for-all that Cruikshank envisioned has, over the last 40 years, soured into a self-serving system that has been corrupted by the profit motive.

In too many instances, it’s a system that uses the working man as its victim, rather than its beneficiary.

Homocysteine and coronary plaque

If you’ve watched the news over the past year, you know that doubt has been cast over the idea that reducing homocysteine blood levels with high doses of B vitamins (B6, B12, and folic acid, or B9) results in reduced risk for heart attack.

Is the homocysteine concept dead? Shall we empty our bottles of costly B vitamins into the trash and move on?

I don’t think so. As detailed in one of our Track Your Plaque Special Reports from a few months ago, I think the homocysteine issue still deserves lots of respect and further investigation. After all, hundreds of clinical studies have connected higher homocysteine levels with greater risk for heart disease, stroke, and aneurysm. Numerous studies, for example, have repeatedly and consistently demonstrated a tripling of heart attack risk when homocysteine levels exceed 14 ?mol/l. Can we dismiss this association because several more recent studies—NORVIT, HOPE, and VISP—suggested that, when starting homocysteine levels are 12.5, that B vitamin supplementation does not reduce heart attack risk?

I think there’s lots more to know about the homocysteine connection. That said, I have never seen a patient who I thought had heart disease strictly because homocysteine was increased.

I believe that we can at least use homocysteine as an index of lifestyle: the higher the homocysteine, the poorer the diet, or the less effective the absorption of B vitamins (especially vitamins B12 and folic acid). Homocysteine levels of <9 micromol/l suggest both adequate intake and absorption of these B vitamins.

If homocysteine is tightly connected with risk for heart disease, yet supplementation of B vitamins fails to reduce risk, might there be another means of connection? Or, could both homocysteine and heart disease be connected in some way that has nothing to do with B vitamins?

Don’t close the book on homocysteine. Just because conventional experience fails to draw connection does not necessarily mean that none exists. If it’s any consolation, taking B vitamins has been correlated with better memory, concentration, and other health benefits, even if no reduction in heart disease develops.

Big heart scan scores drop

High heart scan scores of, say, greater than 1000 are more difficult to reduce than lower scores.

I learned this lesson early in the experience of trying to drop scores. In the first few years of trying to drop scores, I saw relatively modest scores of 20, 50, or 100 drop readily, even when the usual targets were not fully achieved, and even before the incorporation of some of the more exciting recent additions to the Track Your Plaque program, like vitamin D.

But big scores of 1000, 2000, or 3000 are a tougher nut to crack. In the first few years, what I usually saw was a slowing , or "deceleration," of growth from the expected rate of annual score increase of 30% that would continue for a year or two, followed by zero change. In the first year of effort, for example, a score increase of 18% was common. 10% was common in year two, then finally zero change in year three. Somehow, the more plaque you begin with, the more "momentum" in growth is present and the longer it takes to stop it. Kind of like stopping a compact car versus stopping a freight train.

But more recently, I'm seeing faster drops. Today, Charlie came to the office to discuss his second heart scan. 18 months earlier, Charlie's first scan showed a score of 3,112, high by anybody's standard.

His repeat score: 3,048. While the drop is relatively small on a percentage basis and may even fall within the expected rate of error for heart scans (which tends to be <2% at this high a score), I told Charlie that it still represented a huge success. Not only did he not increase his score by the expected 30% per year, he also brought a charging locomotive to a rapid stop.

Next year, Charlie is targeting a big drop. Given the tools he now has available, I'm optimistic that he will succeed.

Watch for the Track Your Plaque May, 2007 Newsletter in which we will detail Charlie's story further.

Does the American Heart Association diet reduce heart disease?

If you have a heart attack and land in the hospital where, invariably, you will have a heart procedure. Or, if you get a stent or coronary bypass operation, sometime before your discharge from the hospital, a well-meaning hospital staff dietitian will provide instruction in the American Heart Association (AHA) diet.

Does this diet reduce the risk of heart disease?

The answer depends on where you start. If you begin with a conventional American diet that is enormously influenced by convenience, food manufacturers like Nabisco, General Mills, Quaker Oats, ADM, and Cargill, or food distributors like McDonald’s, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell, then the American Heart Association diet is indeed an improvement. But just a small one. If LDL cholesterol is the yardstick, the average reduction in LDL is between 10 and 15 mg/dl. This is the same amount of change you’d experience by adding 1 tablespoon of oat bran to your diet. Hardly worth boasting about. HDL, triglycerides, blood glucose, and body weight do not change.

The diet could be substantially better. After all, it’s become common knowledge that other diets, such as the so-called Mediterranean diet, the South Beach Diet, and similar broad projects result in far greater changes than the AHA diet dispensed by your hospital and cardiologist. These diets more effectively reduce LDL, raise HDL, reduce triglycerides, reduce C-reactive protein, reduce blood pressure. Diets like South Beach also yield substantial weight loss and reversal of diabetic tendencies, with the magnitude of benefit dependent on the amount of weight lost.

Why this stubborn adherence to the outdated concepts articulated in the AHA diet? Cardiologists would argue that insufficient data has been generated to permit widespread application of these diets. They also differ on whether they really work. Of course, the majority remain ignorant and dismiss them as fad diets.

A little digging into the financial disclosures of the AHA suggests another, more malignant influence: who is paying the bills? Until recently, drug manufacturers were major contributors to the AHA. However, more recently AHA administrators have become sensitive to the public perception that they might be nothing more than a voice box for the drug industry. They have since limited contributions from the drug companies to 8% of annual charitable revenues.

The drug manufacturers have been replaced by the food industry. In addition to food manufacturers that make the cereals on your grocery shelf, it includes the multi-national conglomerates that produce unimaginable revenues and carry enormous political clout, like ADM and Cargill. Ever wonder how it is that Honey Nut Cheerios received a “Heart Healthy” endorsement from the AHA?

The AHA diet does not provide the answers we’re looking for, not even close. It is a perversion from an organization that has its strings pulled by industry. The answers to health will not come from the AHA, AMA, the American College of Cardiology, the American Hospital Association, and it won’t come from your doctor. It won’t come from a titillating report on the evening news or Good Morning America. It will come from collective and expanding wisdom placed directly into the hands of the public. It will be untainted by the temptation of drug industry dollars. It will not be dirtied by million dollar contributions, or the multi-million dollar behind-closed-doors lobbying of the food manufacturers. It will come from the truth relayed to the healthcare-consuming public. I hope you recognize it when you see it.

If you want a healthy diet for your heart, throw away the pamphlets from the AHA unless you are partial to bread, breakfast cereals, corn, and the supporters of their misguided nutritional advice.

Vitamin K2 and coronary plaque

The vitamin K2 story, though still preliminary, is becoming increasingly interesting from the perspective of CT heart score reduction.

The origin of this concept came from some unexpected observations. One, the observation that osteoporosis (lack of bone calcium that leads to fractures) arises from deficiency of vitamin K2. Two, deficiency of K2 leads to unrestrained calcium deposition in animal models, leading to heart attack in just weeks.

Vitamin K2 has been largely ignored for years, since the more widely understood K1 is rarely deficient. K1 deficiency can occur from prolonged antibiotic use, or from severe malnutrition. But deficiency in otherwise well people is very uncommon. Vitamin K2, however, may be a different story. Deficiency may be common.

The Rotterdam Heart Study of cheese-eating Dutch showed that greater K2 intakes resulted in a halving of heart attacks. Cheese (traditional varieties, not Velveeta or other make-believe cheese products) is a modest source of K2, as is the Japanese native food, natto. (If you've ever seen natto, I dare you to eat it. I have a pretty strong stomach and curiousity for food, but natto is the one thing I could not eat--it is truly horrible.)

The weight of evidence suggests that vitamin K2 supplementation may prove to be a useful addition to your coronary plaque control program. Clearly, more data are needed, particulary therapeutic obserations, i.e., observing people who take dose X of a K2 prepartion and tracking some feedback measure, e.g., bone density, CT heart scan score, "events" like heart attack, etc.

Nonetheless, the K2 story is clearly worth reading about, perhaps even considering supplementation. Please watch for the Special Report on the www.cureality.com website in the coming days.

Exercise and blood pressure

The media has gotten a hold of a case report from the University of Maryland describing a 51-year old physician who, despite being a long distance runner, had a high heart scan score.

An example of the report can be found at

Heart Disease In A Marathon Runner: Is Too Much Exercise A Bad Thing?

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/03/070315091100.htm in Science Daily.



"The mystery was all the more intriguing because his resting blood pressure and fasting cholesterol levels, the usual measures of cardiovascular health, were in the normal range."


When this man was put on a treadmill for a stress test, his blood pressure skyrocketed from a normal 118/78 to 230/78--extremely high, even for exercise. The physicians reporting the case raised the question of whether long-distance running represents a risk for heart disease and if the high blood pressure with exercise is a contributor or cause of the high heart scan score.

These are phenomena we are very familiar with. We have stressed the importance of exercise blood pressure as a trigger for coronary plaque for years. While 230/78 is clearly too high, we find that any blood pressure over 170/80 with exercise adds to the fire and can trigger plaque growth.

However, I think it is absurd to suggest that marathon running itself is a trigger of coronary plaque. I think it is far more likely that the person described in the report had lipoprotein(a), a potent trigger for both exercise-induced hypertension and high CT heart scan scores in seemingly well people. He likely also suffered from a deficiency of vitamin D deficiency, another contributor. There's no need to indict exercise.

If you are in the Track Your Plaque program, you know that stress tests are of questionable helpfulness for the detection of hidden heart disease. But they are useful for assessment of blood pressure responses during exercise. If BP exceeds 170/80 at 10 mets (a measure of exercise effort achieved by walking 3.4 mph at a 14% grade for 3 minutes), then blood pressure may be a contributor to your heart scan score.

"Fish oil is stupid"

"Fish oil is a waste of time and money. It's stupid. Just stop it."

So a patient of mine was advised by another physician when he complained that he occasionally experienced a fishy aftertaste.

This attitude perplexes me. After all the confirmatory data that support the enormous health benefits of omega-3 fatty acid supplementation, including the 11,000 participant GISSI-Prevenzione Trial, you'd think this attitude would be history. What's a little fish aftertaste when heart attack risk is slashed 28%?

Perhaps the tendency to pooh-pooh fish oil is because it's available as a nutritional supplement. This shouldn't make fish oil appear inconsequential. Far from it.

If you witness the extraordinary power for fish oil to reduce triglycerides, you will be immediately convinced of its effectiveness. The ability of omega-3 fatty acids from fish to eliminate intermediate-density lipoprotein (IDL), the persistent abnormal lipoprotein which signals an inability to clear dietary fats from the blood, can also convince you. More than 90% of people with excessive IDL have it completely eliminated by 4000-6000 mg of fish oil (providing 1200-1800 mg EPA + DHA) per day.

The fact that fish oil is available as a prescription "medication," as well as an over-the-counter supplement, causes some physicians to dismiss the power of the supplemental form. This is nonsense. The over-the-counter form is every bit as effective as the prescription form.

The makers of prescription Omacor also make the claim that their preparation is safer and purer. That may be true, but I'd like to see independent verification from the FDA, USDA, or an unbiased organization like Consumer Reports before I accept their marketing as fact--particularly at $120 to $240 per month! If Omacor proves to contain substantially less mercury and pesticide residues, then that will need to be factored in. (Please note that both Consumer Reports and Consumer Labs measured no substantial mercury or pesticide residues in their analyses of 16 and 41 brands, respectively.)

I try to persuade my colleagues that the idea of taking supplements is a wonderful trend that allows people to express ownership of their own health. What people need is guidance, not salesmanship for a more expensive version, nor dismissal of nutritional preparations that actually possess considerable benefits.

More Vitamin D and HDL

I’m seeing more and more of it and I am convinced that there is a relationship: significant boosts in HDL cholesterol from vitamin D supplementation.

To my knowledge this remains an undescribed and uncharacterized phenomenon. There have been several observers over the last two decades who have noticed that total cholesterol shows a seasonal fluctuation: cholesterol goes up in fall and winter, down in spring and summer; year in, year out. This phenomenon was unexplained but makes perfect sense if you factor in vitamin D fluctuations from sun exposure.

I have come across no other substantiating evidence about fluctuations of HDL. But I am convinced that I am seeing it. Replace vitamin D to a blood level of 50 ng/ml, and HDL goes up if it is low to begin with. If HDL is high to begin with, say, 63 mg/dl, it doesn’t seem to change.

But, say, starting HDL is 36 mg/dl. You take niacin, 1000 mg; reduce high-glycemic index foods like breakfast cereals, breads, cookies, bagels, and other processed carbohydrate foods; exercise four days a week; add a glass of red wine a day; even add 2 oz of dark chocolate. You shed 15 lbs towards your ideal weight. After 6 months, HDL: 46 mg/dl. Better but hardly great.

Add vitamin D at a dose of, say, 4000-6000 units per day (oil-based gelcap, of course!), and re-check HDL two or three months later: 65 mg/dl.

I’ve seen it happen over and over. It doens't occur in everybody but occurs with such frequency that it’s hard to ignore or attribute to something else. What I’m not clear about is whether this effect only occurs in the presence of the other strategies we use to raise HDL, a “facilitating” effect, or whether this is an independent benefit of HDL that would occur regardless of whatever else you do. Time will help clarify.

We are tracking our experience to see if it holds up, how, and to what degree on a more formal basis. Until then, a rising HDL is yet another reason—-among many!-—to be absolutely certain your 25-OH-vitamin D3 level is at 50 ng/ml or greater.

How high is an ideal vitamin D blood level? If 50 ng is good, is 60 or 70 ng even better? Probably not, but there are no data. We have to wait and see. Unlike a drug that enjoys plentiful “dose-response” data, there are no such observations for vitamin D into this higher, though still “physiologic,” range.

Thin ice

How long can an industry built on ignorance and deception continue its practices in the new Information Age?

I don’t think it can for long. I talk to hospital administrators who believe that their source of competition is the hospital across town, battling for the same patients. I speak to my colleagues, the cardiologists, who believe that the current model is sustainable—take every willing body to the catheterization laboratory or operating room for heart procedures, the revenue-generating engine of income and expanding heart programs.

I speak to primary care physicians, who are dumbfounded and perplexed and have no idea which way things are going. They are trapped in a peculiar position: most have signed contracts and are employees of the hospital. They are legally bound to support the cardiologists who take anybody possible to the catheterization laboratory or direct patients to other profit-making procedures.

Much of this system depends on the willingness of the participant, meaning you and the health care seeking public. What happens when the truth comes out and disseminates widely through the thinking populace? What happens to hospitals and physicians and the vast structures they’ve built when the bottom drops out for 50% of their “market?

The proverbial cow manure will hit the fan. Upheavals in the medical industry will rival the changes that the automobile or telephone brought early in the last century. Cardiologists, immense hospital heart programs, and the vast economic infrastructure they spawned will go the way of stage coach manufacturers and the telegraph.

What form will the broad exposure of detailed information in health take? I’m not sure, but it will certainly come. The collaborative efforts that created the Linux operating system and have challenged the monopoly of Microsoft Windows, or the emergence of the extraordinary Wikipedia as a repository of human knowledge that dwarfs the venerated Encylopedia Brittanica, will eventually overtake the American medical system, the heart disease industry in particular.

If you base your future on the welfare of your local hospital or the manufacturers of stents, operating room equipment for heart bypass, or similar industries, watch out. The ice is thin. And as the spring warms the air around you, it gets thinner.

The Track Your Plaque program is our first step in broadcasting the message of self-empowerment in heart health care and an attempt to wrestle control away from the profit-seeking forces that dominate. As we grow, we not only hope to broadcast the message more widely, but expand the message to other areas of health. I predict that the collaborative, let’s-all-pitch-in-and-help spirit of the Information Age, “version 2.0,” will spark the change.

Vitamin D and cancer

Although this is a Blog about heart scans and heart disease, I came across a helpful video from Dr. Joseph Mercola about vitamin D and cancer that's worth viewing. Though I do not agree with many of Dr. Mercola's on-the-edge views, he does come up with some good thoughts and, in this instance, a useful educational tool about vitamin D.

You can view his video (which he claims crashed his server, due to the excessive demand for downloads) by cutting and pasting the address into your URL bar (above):

http://v.mercola.com/blogs/public_blog/How-to-Reduce-Your-Risk-of-Cancer-By-50--8790.aspx

Also, for my many patients who I've directed to look in my Blog for Dr. Reinhold Vieth's webcast presentation on vitamin D, here's the address:

http://tinyurl.com/f93vl

Perhaps I carry on too much about vitamin D. But I've come to respect this "nutrient" as among the most powerful strategies I've seen for dramatically improving control over coronary plaque growth as well as other aspects of health, as Drs. Mercola and Vieth eloquently detail.

Lipoprotein(a), menopause, and andropause

Lipoprotein(a) is a curious lipoprotein. Not only is it a genetic pattern with numerous variations, it is also one that shows a predictable age-dependent rise.

Women in particular are prone to this effect, men to a lesser degree. As we age, many hormones recede, particularly growth hormone, testosterone, the estrogens (estradiol, estriol, estrone), progesterone, and DHEA, among others. This is not a disease but the process of senescence, or aging.

When we're young, estrogens, testosterone, and DHEA all exert suppressive effects to keep lipoprotein(a), Lp(a), at bay. But as a woman proceeds through her pre-menopausal and menopausal years, and as a male passes through his fourth decade, there is an accelerated decline of these hormones. As a result, Lp(a) crawls out of its cave and starts to sniff around.

Typically, a woman might have a Lp(a) of 75 nmol/l (approximately 30 mg/dl) at age 38. Ten years later, at age 48, her Lp(a) might be 125 nmol/l (app. 50 mg/dl), all due to the decline of estrogens and DHEA. A parallel situation develops in males due to the drop in testosterone. For this reason, it may be necessary to re-check Lp(a) once after the fourth decade of life if you've had a level checked in your younger years.

This opens up some interesting therapeutic possibilities. If receding hormones are responsible for unleashing Lp(a), hormones can be replenished to reduce it. In males, this is relatively straightforward: supplement human testosterone and Lp(a) drops about 25%.

In women, however, it's a bit murkier, thanks to the negative experince reported using horse estrogens (AKA Premarin) in the HERS Trial and Women's Health Initiative. You'll recall that women who take horse estrogens and progestins (synthetic progesterone) do not experience less heart attack and develop a slightly increased risk of endometrial and breast cancer. There was, however, a poorly-publicized sub-study that showed that women with Lp(a) experience up to 50% fewer heart attacks on the horse/synthetic combination.

Wouldn't it be nice to have a large trial examining the safety/advisability of human estrogens and progesterone? To my knowledge, no such confident study in a significant number of women exists, since there's so little money to be made with human hormonal preparations.

For these reasons, we use lots of DHEA, generally at doses of 25 to 50 mg per day. It makes most people feel good, boosts energy modestly, increases muscle, and reduces Lp(a) up to 18% in women, a lesser quantity in men.