Vitamin D toxicity

It is the craziest thing.

The notion of vitamin D being easily and readily toxic has grabbed hold of many people, including my colleagues who were taught that vitamin D was toxic in medical school based on the skimpiest (and often misinterpreted) observations in a handful of unusual cases.

In my practice and in the Track Your Plaque program, we routinely use doses of 2000-10,000 units per day, occasionally more. We are guided by blood levels of 25(OH) vitamin D3. I have personally never witnessed vitamin D toxicity.

Here's an interesting graph from Dr. Reinhold Vieth. Those of you familiar with the vitamin D argument know that Dr. Vieth is among the few genuine gurus in the vitamin D world.



















From Vieth R. Vitamin D supplementation, 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, and safety. Am J Clin Nutr 1999;69:842-856. (Full text is available without charge.)

In the graph, the X's represent toxicity; circles fall within the non-toxic range. (Toxicity is generally defined as a level sufficient to raise blood calcium levels, "hypercalcemia.") Note that the 25(OH) vitamin D3 levels are given in nmol/L; to convert to ng/ml units that are customary in the U.S., divide the nmol/L value by a factor of 2.5.

You will notice that toxicity is virtually unheard of until the dose exceeds 10,000 units per day. Beyond 10,000 units per day, the curve heads upward sharply and toxicity does become a possibility, though not an absolute (since there are circles above 10,000 units).

You may also notice that the curve is relatively flat from vitamin D doses between 200 units and 10,000 units (log scale on x axis; arithmetic scale on y), the range of most common doses for vitamin D supplementation.

Another perspective on vitamin D blood levels is to examine the blood levels of people who are young and obtain plentiful sun exposure. Lifeguards, for instance, have blood levels of 84 ng/ml (210 nmol/L) without ill-effect. (Sun exposure cannot generate vitamin D toxicity, because of a feedback safety mechanism in skin.) While this may not represent an ideal level since they represent an extreme, it does provide reassurance that such levels are non-toxic. I also point out these levels occur in the youthful since most people lose 75% or more of vitamin D activating capacity in the skin by their 70s. Most of us over 40 are kidding ourselves if we think that a suntan provides sufficient vitamin D.

Keep in mind that it is not necessarily the dose of vitamin D that is toxic, but the blood level it generates. I take 10,000 units of vitamin D as a gelcap per day to maintain my blood level between 50-60 ng/ml (125-150 nmol/L). This strategy helps me keep my HDL in the 70-80 mg/dl range, my blood sugar around 90 mg/dl, my blood pressure <120/80, and I no longer experience colds nor winter "blues."


Copyright 2008 William Davis, MD

Turning plaque into profit

For reasons unknown to me, I received a solicitation to invest in a company called Prescient Medical, with a slogan that caught my eye:


Detect and treat heart attacks before they occur.


The glossy brochure details their technology development strategy:

Predict(TM) Optical Catheter System--A catheter introduced into the coronary artery during a catheterization procedure to determine whether a specific plaque or vessel area is "vulnerable," i.e., prone to rupture in future.

Protect(TM) Luminal Shield--A stent-like metal device deployed into the coronary artery at the region of vulnerable plaque to prevent future plaque rupture.

The company anticipates FDA approval for their systems by 2009 and sales to begin by 2010. They predict sales of $7 billion.

Let's stop and think about this for a moment. It seems to me that, rather than pursuing the market of another stent for a "severe blockage," this company is going after the untapped procedural market of vulnerable plaque. In other words, their technology (an optical sensor technology that emits and analyzes light wavelengths to map specific plaque characteristics) identifies plaque that may rupture in months or years, followed by implantation of stent(s) that presumably prevent plaque rupture.

Thus, conceivably, many 20%, 30%, 40% etc. "blockages", atherosclerotic plaques that do not block flow and thereby pose no need for a conventional stent, will end up with this new type of stent. One patient could therefore receive multiple "Luminal Shields" in a single procedure.

When would these devices be employed? One pathway I could conceive of that my colleagues will be sure to exploit is 1) identify plaque by CT angiography, then 2) bring patient to the catheterization laboratory and perform this procedure for whatever hot, vulnerable plaques are identified. In other words, symptoms are no longer necessary. Reduced blood flow is no longer necessary. An abnormal stress test is no longer necessary. All that is required is that you have plaque. If the plaque is then determined to be vulnerable, then it is stented.

What bothers me about all this is the emerging effort to exploit this untapped market--a big one--of early heart disease as identified by coronary atherosclerotic plaque. As heart scans have demonstrated, there is an enormous amount of hidden heart disease in this world. This company has discovered a way to turn plaque into a profit opportunity, much as the statin drug industry found a way to "turn cholesterol into money."

The conventional stent market has plateaued and now has been, to some degree, battered by the drug-coated stent argument. Prescient has found a new and significant market for procedures and stents.

Is this really necessary? Why does plaque have to become a procedural disease? Doesn't it make more sense that, if vulnerable plaque is identified, that clinical trials are then designed to develop treatment strategies that modify vulnerable characteristics? Shockingly, this has not been done to any significant extent. Instead, the easiest path to a profit opportunity is to implant a "Luminal Shield."

You and I are able to inactivate, disempower, and essentially shut down plaque, while others are working furiously to convert it into a procedural profit opportunity. I personally find this so distasteful that I would sooner endorse a high-dose statin strategy than this approach.

You can view a video of my colleague, Dr. Martin Leon, on the Prescient Medical website, (or click here to go directly to the video), talking about how this technology will "change the treatment paradigm of the interventionalist from reactive to proactive." Scary stuff. Dr. Leon has made millions of dollars (probably more like tens of millions of dollars) from his support of technology companies for the interventional coronary device market.

My hope is that word of the sorts of techniques we use in the Track Your Plaque program disseminate before this sort of luminal coating idiocy gets off the ground.

(In actuality, a different version of this approach has been available for years using intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), another procedure that involves threading a catheter down each coronary artery during a catheterization procedure. IVUS can also cross-sectionally map a plaque's anatomy and identify "vulnerable" features, like a thin cap overlying a collection of semi-liquid fat ("lipid pool"). There has been some discussion of using this approach to identify vulnerable plaque followed by stent implantation, but it has never gotten off the ground and has certainly not found validation in any clinical study. By the way, any stent prevents plaque rupture, since by their very nature, the plaque contents are compressed, modified, and excluded to the exterior of the stent. Plaque rupture within a stent is very rare in its few millimeters of length. It may therefore not require some new technology to prevent plaque rupture.)

Statin mono-failure

Evan's first heart scan score in November, 2006 yielded a high score for a 56-year old male: 542.

So he put up little fuss when his doctor prescribed simvastatin at a high dose.

Evan's LDL cholesterol before simvastatin: 158 mg/dl

Evan's LDL cholesterol on simvastatin: 72 mg/dl.

By conventional standards, Evan has had an excellent response. The rest of his lipid (cholesterol) panel was unrevealing: HDL 62 mg/dl, triglycerides 78 mg/dl. Evan doesn't smoke, has a normal blood pressure, and he is not diabetic. That should do it, right?

So his doctor thought. So Evan asked if another heart scan was in order. In December, 2007, after one year of simvastatin, his second heart scan score: 705--a 30% increase over one year.

Recall that, with no effort at prevention whatsoever, the natural progression of heart scan scores is a 30% per year increase. Did simvastatin do nothing?

This is quite typical of people who do nothing more than take a statin drug. While some people do slow plaque growth (we say "decelerate") modestly on a statin drug, Evan's experience is not unusual: plaque continues to grow despite high-dose statin drug and an apparently favorable cholesterol panel.

In fact, I can count the number of people who reduced their heart scan scores taking a statin drug alone on one finger.

Statins do not represent a cure for heart disease. They cannot be used as sole therapy to reduce risk for heart attack. In fact, given sufficient time, the majority of people who do nothing more than follow this standard line of treatment (along with the equally lame low-fat diet, etc.) will have done nothing more than postpone their heart attack. Elimination of risk? Nope.

This is among the reasons we developed the Track Your Plaque approach. While not foolproof, I know of no better approach to seize control over plaque growth.

Additional conversations on clinical studies which, as with Evan's experience, demonstrated how statin drugs fail to slow plaque growth can be found in previous Heart Scan Blog posts:

Don't be satisfied with "deceleration"

Study review: Yet another Lipitor study



Copyright 2008 William Davis, MD

Triglyceride traps

Triglycerides are a potent trigger for coronary plaque growth.

Triglycerides in and of themselves probably do not cause plaque growth. Instead, triglycerides contribute to the formation of abnormal lipoproteins in the blood that, in turn, trigger coronary plaque, like VLDL, intermediate-density lipoprotein (IDL), and small LDL. Excess triglycerides also modify HDL structure and cause you to lose HDL in the urine.

I see plenty of people who begin with triglycerides of 200 mg/dl, 300, 700, even over 1000 mg/dl. It doesn't take long before you learn what works, what doesn't to reduce triglycerides. This is especially true in the Track Your Plaque approach, in which our target for triglycerides is 60 mg/dl or less.

Here's a list of things to consider if you are trying to gain control of your triglycerides:

--Fish oil--A mainstay of treatment. The omega-3 fatty acids from fish oil are the number one most potent treatment for high triglycerides.

--Reduction of high-glycemic index foods--Most notably wheat. Everybody knows that we shouldn't eat Snickers bars or bags of licorice. But many people eat plenty of wheat-containing breads, pastas, pretzels, crackers, breakfast cereals, etc., all in the name of increasing whole grains and fiber. In reality, they are causing triglycerides to skyrocket, dropping HDL, forming small LDL, increaaing blood sugar and blood pressure, and increasing obesity.

--Eliminating fructose and high-fructose corn syrup--This ubiquitous sweetener is now consumed in enormous quantities by the average American, nearly 80 lbs per year per person. You'll find it in soft drinks, ketchup, beer, breads, breakfast cereals, and many other processed foods. You'll find none in green peppers, cucumbers, and raw nuts. Fructose causes large rises in triglycerides, as well as diabetic patterns. Don't let "fat-free" claims fool you. Take a look at the ingredients in Kraft Fat-Free Caesar Italian salad dressing, for instance:

Kraft Fat-Free Caesar Italian

Ingredients:
Water, Vinegar, High Fructose Corn Syrup, Corn Syrup, Salt, Parmesan Cheese, Part-Skim Milk, Cheese Culture, Salt, Enzymes, Contains less than 2% of Garlic, Whey, Onion Juice, Autolyzed Yeast Extract, Phosphoric Acid, Worcestershire Sauce, Vinegar, Molasses, Corn Syrup, Water, Salt, Caramel Color, Dried Garlic, Sugar ,Spices, Tamarind, Natural Flavors, Hydrolyzed Soy Protein, Xanthan Gum, Potassium Sorbate and Calcium Disodium EDTA as Preservatives, Dried Garlic, Buttermilk, Spice, Dried Parsley, Caramel Color, Sodium Phosphate, Oleoresin Paprika.



--Alcohol--While a couple of drinks a day raises HDL, exerts anti-inflammatory effects, and reduces blood pressure, more than this begins to raise triglycerides. Although I've come across no formal studies on this question, my gut sense is that beer, in particular, raises triglycerides more than wine or other alcoholic beverages. Could it be the wheat source of beer? Or its high-fructose corn syrup? I don't know, but beer is the least desirable form of alcohol of the choices we have.


Following these simple steps, it is unusual in my experience that you cannot achieve a triglyceride level <60 mg/dl. Rarely do we need to add fibrate drugs or other prescription agents to reduce triglycerides.



Copyright 2008 William Davis, MD

High-dose fish oil for Lp(a)

Lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a), is a problem area in coronary plaque reversal.

While our current Track Your Plaque record holder for largest percentage reduction in heart scan score has Lp(a), it remains among the more troublesome lipoprotein patterns.

One unique treatment for Lp(a) is high-dose omega-3 fatty acids from fish oil. While the data are relatively meager, there is one solid study from Lp(a) expert, Dr. Santica Marcovina of the University of Washington, called "The Lugalawa Study."

In this unique set of observations, 1300 members of a Bantu tribe living in Tanzania were studied. What made this population unusual is the fact that two groups of Bantus lived under different circumstances. One group lived on Nyasa Lake (3rd largest lake in Africa and reputed to have the greatest number of species of fish of any lake in the world) and ate large quantities of freshwater fish providing up to 500 mg of omega-3s, EPA and DHA, per day. Another Bantu group lived away from the lake as farmers, eating a pure vegetarian diet without fish.

Nyasa Lake












This situation among genetically similar stock provided a unique learning opportunity, a chance to assess whether different diets influenced Lp(a) levels.

The results: The fish-eating Bantus had an average Lp(a) level of 14.0 mg/dl. The farming, non-fish eating Bantus had an average Lp(a) of 27.0--a 48% difference. Curiously, a comparison of the apo(a) component of Lp(a) between the groups also showed that the fisherman expressed fewer dangerous small apo(a) forms, despite equal potential to express both.

The Lugalawa Study opens the question of whether similar results can be obtained not by moving to Tanzania and fishing Nyasa Lake, but by mimicking their experience by supplementing high doses of omega-3 fatty acids.

It's an intriguing question. In the Track Your Plaque program, we have no specific experience with this strategy, but it is certainly worth exploring further.

Watch for two upcoming Special Reports on the Track Your Plaque website in which we will be detailing 1)unique strategies for Lp(a) reduction, and 2) the usefulness of high-dose fish oil for coronary plaque reversal.

Interesting enough for a Virtual Clinical Trial?


Image courtesy Wikipedia.


Copyright 2008 William Davis, MD

The many faces of LDL

Pam has an LDL cholesterol of 144 mg/dl.

To most people, this means that she has a mildly elevated LDL value. Many people would respond by cutting the saturated fat in their diet. Most physicians would concur and talk about prescribing a statin drug.

Let me tell you what an LDL cholesterol of 144 mg/dl means to me:

1) It could mean an LDL of all large particles (which is good) or an LDL of all small particles (which is very bad). Or, perhaps it's some combination of big and small. I can't tell which just by knowing that LDL is 144.

Small LDL responds to a diet reduced in processed carbohydrates and wheat flour; large LDL does not. Small LDL responds in an exagerrated way to niacin; large LDL does not. It makes a difference.

2) It could mean that, hidden within LDL, is lipoprotein(a), or Lp(a). Recall that Lp(a) is a high-risk genetic pattern that can provide the false appearance of high LDL cholesterol. If Pam were prescribed a statin drug, it would have little effect and little benefit. (See Red flags for Lipoprotein(a).)

Knowing that Pam has Lp(a) can point us in an entirely different direction than just LDL cholesterol. It might mean high-dose fish oil, a more serious approach to niacin, hormonal treatments like DHEA or testosterone. It might mean more attention to warning your children about the possibility that they, too, might share this genetic trait.

3) It could mean both small LDL and Lp(a) are present simultaneously, an especially dangerous combined pattern that is among the highest risks for heart disease known.

4) Because Pam's LDL of 144 mg/dl was not measured, but calculated, it means that it is subject to tremendous inaccuracy.

In my office, calculated LDL cholesterols can be inaccurate by 50 or 100 mg/dl--commonly. So Pam's LDL of 144 mg/dl could really be 70 mg/dl, or it could be 244 mg/dl. Once again, it's a big difference.


Just like The Three Faces of Eve, the 1957 film in which Joanne Woodward played the three wildly different sides of Eve's personality--the daytime Eve White, the fun-loving and daring Eve Black, and Jane--so can LDL assume several different faces, all with different personalities, different implications.

Accepting LDL cholesterol as LDL cholesterol is a fool's game. It is only a starting point, nothing more. Accepting a statin drug based on LDL is, likewise, a trap fraught with uncertainty, the potential for limited or ineffective results, the price being your heart and health.

Drive-by angioplasty

Don had an angioplasty 6 months ago. When asked about the symptoms that prompted him to go to the hospital, he explained:

"I remember feeling really tired for about a week before I went. I'd read that fatigue can sometimes be a sign of heart disease. But then I had some trouble breathing. You know, like not being able to get a deep breath."

"My wife and I were planning on going on vacation. So I wanted to be certain something wasn't going on in my heart. That's when my wife insisted that she take me to the hospital.

"I kind of remember going there and arriving in the emergency room, but then I don't remember anything. Next thing I know, I'm waking up in a hospital bed. My wife and kids were there, looking all concerned. They said that I just got two stents and that the doctor just barely saved my life."

Happy story, happy ending? Not quite.

I reviewed the angiograms made during Don's hospital stay. They did, indeed, show some plaque, but not anywhere close to the amount necessary to account for symptoms like fatigue or breathlessness. For symptoms like this to occur without physical exertion, say, at your desk or relaxing at home, a critical >90% blockage would be required.

The worst "blockage" Don had was 50% at most. The leap was made to connect his relatively vague symptoms with these "blockages," leading to the implantation of two stents.

This is not as uncommon as you think. Yes, the practice of cardiology can be a life of acute procedures, urgent situations, and crises. Unfortunately, some people with questionable need for these procedures also get swept up in the wave. Sometimes it's due simply to the doctor's need to do "something," nervous family waiting in the wings. Sometiems it's intellectual laziness: putting in two stents seems to satisfy many patients' needs to have something "fixed," even when symptoms like fatigue could be due to anemia, sleep deprivation, a thyroid disorder, or any other myriad conditions that require a diagnostic effort (otherwise known as thinking). And sometimes it's simply done with financial motives, since angiplasty and related procedures pay well.

I call this "drive-by angioplasty," the impulsive, poorly considered coronary procedure that really should never have happened. How often does this happen? What percentage of heart procedures fall into this category? There are no clear-cut estimates. There are crude attempts by independent agencies that have put the number of unnecessary heart catheterizations up to 20% of the total number performed. The proportion of angioplasty procedures, stents, etc. that are not necessary is a tougher number to pinpoint, given the uncertainties surrounding the indications for these procedures, physician judgment that factors into the decision-making process, and the fact that many decisions are made on a qualitative basis, not precise quantification.

In real life, I would put the proportion of flagrant drive-by procedures at no more than 10%. However, that is 10% of an enormous number. The annual cardiovascular healthcare bill is $400 billion. 10% of that is $40 billion--an unimaginable sum. It also adds up to tens of thousands of people per year needlessly subjected to procedures. Consider that 10,000 heart procedures were performed today alone.

Should we push for legislation to control how and when heart procedures are performed? I don't think so. Despite my criticisms of the status quo in heart care, I still favor the freedom and rapid development of a free-market approach. However, you as a healthcare consumer need to be armed with information. You don't go to the car dealer unarmed with information on prices and comparative performance of the car you want. You should do the same with health. Information is your weapon, your defense against becoming the victim of the next drive-by heart procedure.

"Heart Healthy" and other lies

"Bankers believe liquidation has run its course and advise purchases."

New York Times headline, Oct 30, 1929, at the start of the Great Depression.






"I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Ms Lewinsky."

Former President Bill Clinton at a Washington Press Conference, 1998.






"The third quarter is going to be great."

Enron CEO, Ken Lay, just before the company reported a $638 million third-quarter loss, triggering the company's collapse.




Should we add the following to the list?


Heart Healthy Bisquick





















Heart Healthy snacks according to the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute:

Animal crackers, devil's food cookies, fig and other fruit bars, ginger snaps, graham crackers, vanilla or lemon wafers

Angel food cake or other lowfat cakes

Low fat frozen yogurt, ice milk, fruit ices, sorbet, sherbet

Pudding (make it with fat free or 1% milk), gelatin desserts

Popcorn without butter or oil; pretzels, baked tortilla chips






67% digestible carbohydrates/sugars from corn syrup, sugar, raisins, and honey. Oh, yes . . . and it contains plant sterols.





"Heartzels are a healthy snack alternative for anyone wanting to control fat intake and add fiber to their diet," said Tracy LaRosiliere, a Frito-Lay vice president of marketing. "What better time for Frito-Lay to launch its first heart-healthy snack than during American Heart Month and just in time for Valentine's Day."

The relationship with the American Heart Association and the launch of Rold Gold Heartzels Pretzels is the latest move by Frito-Lay to continue its commitment to offering a wide variety of low-fat and better-for-you snacks nationally, which like the company's assortment of regular chips can be enjoyed as part of a healthy diet and lifestyle.

Calcium chaos


Imagine that I'm planning to build a wall of bricks. I start by throwing cement at a pile of bricks, hoping that it forms a nice, orderly brick wall.

Fat chance, you say.

I believe that is what appears to be emerging as the situation with calcium supplementation.

A recent study from New Zealand reported an experience with 1,471 postmenopausal women, mean age of 74 years, who were randomized to treatment with either calcium supplements or placebo. Calcium was supplied as calcium citrate (Citrical) to provide 1000 mg of (elemental) calcium per day (400 mg morning, 600 mg evening).

(Bolland MJ, Barber PA, Doughty RN et al. Vascular events in healthy older women receiving calcium supplementation: randomised controlled trial. Brit Med J BMJ, doi:10.1136/bmj.39440.525752.BE; published 15 January 2008)

Over 5 years, women taking calcium had twice the risk of having a heart attack compared with women taking the placebo; women taking calcium had a 47 percent higher risk of having any one of three "events" (heart attack, stroke or sudden death) than women in the placebo group.

The findings of this study run counter to what we've been telling people all these years: Calcium supplementation, usually taken to halt deteriorating bone health and osteoporosis, modestly reduces blood pressure, reduces LDL and raises HDL cholesterol. At first blush, we might thereby presume that it also reduces cardiovascular events.

This study suggests that calcium supplementation does not result in reduction of cardiovascular events, perhaps even increases risk.

Certainly, this new finding will serve to confuse the public even more than it is already, particularly when it comes to strategies that modify risk for heart attack. However, this may make more sense once we stop and think for a moment.

Calcium supplementation inarguably slows, occasionally halts, calcium resorption from bone (through suppression of parathyroid hormone). Calcium also accumulates as part of atherosclerotic plaque in coronary and other arteries.

How does oral calcium know where to go--bones, not arteries or kidneys, in addition to serving all its other crucial functions?

Keep in mind that, in many roles, calcium is passive, something that responds to control exerted by some other factor. Vitamin D is that factor. Vitamin D controls the absorption of calcium in the intestinal tract (calcium aborption quadruples when vitamin D is restored to normal), it controls whether calcium is deposited in bone or extracted from arteries. It is the master control over the fate of calcium. Calcium just goes along for the ride.

Bone and arterial health do indeed intersect via calcium, but not through calcium supplementation. Instead, the control exerted by vitamin D (and vitamin K2, another conversation) connects the seemingly unrelated processes.

At what calcium dose threshold do the benefits stop and the adverse effects begin? That remains unanswered, particularly in light of this new study. However, this study calls into serious question the wisdom of supplementing calcium at a dose of 1000 mg, particularly when taken without normalization of vitamin D.

Calcium is therefore emerging as an important player in artery health. But just taking calcium makes no more sense than our brick wall and cement analogy. You might regard vitamin D as the mason that skillfully lays down both brick and cement in a neat, orderly way.

Another big Track Your Plaque success story

Lorenzo is an 81-year old retired manufacturing engineer whose intial heart scan score in late 2006 was an alarming 1102.

Recall that, despite feeling well and having a normal stress test, Lorenzo was facing a heart attack and death risk that was as high as 25% per year without preventive action.

Lorenzo was moderately interested in the Track Your Plaque concepts. While not exactly the most highly motivated, he did see the rationale in our approach. But he came to us mostly because his primary care doctor told him to.

Nonetheless, one year later, he underwent another heart scan. His score: 588--a 46.6% drop in score, nearly cutting his plaque in half. While Lorenzo didn't set any new records in terms of percentage drop in score, he has reduced his score in real numbers more than anybody else before: a 514 point drop in score.

Lorenzo joins the ranks of our current record holders, Amy, with a 63% drop in heart scan score, and Neal with a 51% drop in score. Both of these Track Your Plaque record holders, while achieving larger percentage reductions in score, achieved less when viewed on an absolute number basis.

Now, breaking records is not necessary to succeed in the Track Your Plaque program or at heart disease reversal. Even 1% reversal is still a big success, certainly more than is achieved in conventional practice.

No special commitment was necessary in Lorenzo's case. All he required was a little of the right kind of information. I can tell what he didn't do: Lorenzo did not follow a low-fat American Heart Association diet, he did not take high-dose statin drug, he did not deprive himself of food, he did not exercise to extremes. He just applied some simple strategies from the Track Your Plaque program.

I play these sorts of games just to make a point and to show just what is possible. While the world of hospital procedures and emergency management of coronary disease marches on, we are quietly reversing the disease. Sometimes, we achieve results that even surprise ourselves.

Lorenzo's full story will be detailed in the February 2008 Track Your Plaque newsletter. If you are not yet a subscriber, you can sign up (without cost)here.


Copyright 2008 William Davis, MD
Is an increase in heart scan score GOOD?

Is an increase in heart scan score GOOD?

In response to an earlier Heart Scan Blog post, I don't care about hard plaque!, reader Dave responded:

Hello Dr Davis,

Interesting post about hard and soft plaque. I recently had a discussion with my GP regarding my serious increase in scan score (Jan 2006 = 235, Nov 2007 = 419).

After the first scan we started aggressively going after my LDL, HDL and Trig...196,59,221

And have them down to 103, 65, 92 - we still have a way to go to 60/60/60 [The Track Your Plaque target values]-

So the increase is a surprise, but my doctor said that the increase could in part be cause some of the soft plaque had been converted to hard plaque and the scan would show that conversion.



Dave's doctor then responded to him with this comment:

"Remember that although your coronary calcium score has gone up, this does not mean that you are at greater risk than you were a year ago. Remember that the most dangerous plaque is the not-yet calcified soft plaque, which will not show up on an EBT [i.e., calcium score]. It is only the safe, calcified plaque that can be measured with the EBT. [Emphasis mine.] For your score to go up like it did, while your lipids came down so much, what had to happen was that lots of dangerous unstable plaque was converted to stable, calcified plaque. There are no accepted guidelines for interpreting changes in calcium scores over time, because the scores tend to go up as treatment converts dangerous plaque to safer plaque. We do know that aggressively lowering LDL reduces both unstable and stable plaque, and we know that risk can be further lowered by adjuvant therapy such as I listed above."


Huh?

This bit of conventional "wisdom" is something I've heard repeated many times. Is it true?

It is absolutely NOT true. In fact, the opposite is true: Dave's substantial increase in heart scan score from 235 to 419 over 22 months, representing a 78% increase, or an annualized rate of increase of 37%. This suggests a large increase in his risk for heart attack, not a decrease. Big difference!

Dr. Paulo Raggi's 2004 study, Progression of coronary artery calcium and risk of first myocardial infarction in patients receiving cholesterol-lowering therapy in 495 participants addresses this question especially well. Two heart scans were performed three years apart, with a statin drug initiated after the first scan, regardless of score.

During the period of study, heart attacks occurred in 41 participants. When these participants were analyzed, it was found that the average annual increase in score over the three year period was 42%. The average annual rate of increase in those free of heart attack was 17%. The group with the 42% annual rate of increase--all on statin drugs--the risk of heart attack was 17.2-fold greater, or 1720%.

The report made several other important observations:

--20% of the heart attack-free participants showed reduction of heart scan scores, i.e., reversal. None of the participants experiencing heart attack had a score reduction.
--Only 2 of the 41 heart attacks occurred in participants with <15% per year annual growth, while the rest (39) showed larger increases.
--The intensity of LDL reduction made no difference in whether heart attacks occurred or not. Those with LDL<100 mg/dl fared no better than those with LDL>100 mg/dl.

Dr. Raggi et al concluded:

"The risk of hard events [heart attack] was significantly higher in the presence of CVS [calcium volume score] progression despite low LDL serum levels, although the interaction of CVS change and LDL level on treatment was highly significant. The latter observation strongly suggests that a combination of serum markers and vascular markers [emphasis mine] may constitute a better way to gauge therapeutic effectiveness than isolated measurement of lipid levels."

This study demonstrates an important principle: Rising heart scan scores signal potential danger, regardless of LDL cholesterol treatment. Yes, LDL reduction does achieve a modest reduction in heart attack, but it does not eliminate them--not even close.

These are among the reasons that, in the Track Your Plaque program, we aim to correct more than LDL cholesterol. We aim to correct ALL causes of coronary plaque, factors that can be responsible for continuing increase in heart scan score despite favorable LDL cholesterol values.

So, Dave, please forgive your doctor his misunderstanding of the increase in your heart scan score. He is not alone in his ignorance of the data and parroting of the mainstream mis-information popular among the statin-is-the-answer-to-everything set.

Just don't let your doctor's ignorance permit the heart attack that is clearly in the stars. Take preventive action now.

Comments (30) -

  • Anonymous

    11/20/2007 5:41:00 PM |

    Dr Davis,

    What should Dave do?  He appears to have improved his LDL:HDL ratio as well as his total C to HDL ratio substantially, but his CAC score jumped significantly.  Maybe look at other risk factors?

    The info here gives no indication of median blood pressure for Dave.  LP(a)?  No indication of particle sizes. But, which of these or others would be most likely to be Dave's downfall in attempting to mitigate a future hard endpoint?

    I don't ask this lightly, I myself am trying to follow the TYP program and keep my high-for-my-age 29 CAC score from growning.  But, I'm frankly not looking forward to my rescan in about a year.  I'm a bit worried about the, "What if my scan shows a dramatic increase?  What then?"

    Thank you for the valuable information you provide.

    :LaughingCT

  • Dr. Davis

    11/20/2007 11:17:00 PM |

    I would urge Dave to follow all the principles of the Track Your Plaque program, including:

    1) Fish oil to provide minimum 1200 mg EPA + DHA per day

    2) Correction of all concealed lipoprotein patterns such as IDL and Lp(a)

    3) Vitamin D raised to 50 ng/ml--crucial!

    4) Normalization of blood pressure, including during exericse.

    5) Normal blood sugar (<100 mg/dl).

    Further efforts might be required, depending on the long-term effects on rate of plaque growth.

  • Ross

    11/21/2007 3:41:00 AM |

    My question is: how repeatable do you think the scores are on the CT scan?  Are they bulletproof (+/- 5% no matter where measured), consistent by analyst (+/- 5% with the same doctor analyzing the scan), or...?  

    I am currently visiting my brother in law, who is an FP doctor with a private practice.  One of his professional friends, a cardiologist who seems a cut above (thinks stenting is a cop-out), recently told him that he only trusted two centers in the mid-Ohio region to score a 16-slice CT scan accurately, and that even then, the variability was still too high for his taste.  Two numbers within 20% were within his expected error bars and weren't different enough to indicate any change to him.  Two different scan centers?  He wouldn't even compare the two scan scores.

    In my own job (software), I've had to manage human-measured numbers over and over again.  One observation keeps coming up: a single value doesn't mean much without an understanding of the accuracy of that value.  I really am curious about how you estimate confidence intervals on CT scan scores.

  • Dr. Davis

    11/21/2007 3:55:00 AM |

    Hi, Ross--

    Excellent questions.

    Several thoughts:

    1) 16-slice scanners are, unfortunately, prone to wider error in heart scan scoring, perhaps as much as 20%. The variation in scoring on an EBT or 64-slice device is far less.

    2) Variation from scan to scan, when expressed as percent, depends to a great degree on the score itself. Lumping all scores together, variation should be no more than 8-9%. However,a low score of, say 2, then repeated at 4 means 100% variation. However, the same absolute difference of 2 but with a score of 1002 and repeated at 1004 is <1% variation. Therefore, higher scores assume much less percent variation, usually <5%.

    3) Variation among different reading physicians tends to be a minor issue, since much of the scoring is done by standard criteria determined by software, not the human eye. The only real source of human variation comes from disputable areas, such as the mitral valve (which can sometimes encroach into the coronary area and appear like plaque) and the mouth of arteries, which can be debated as being in the aorta or in the coronary arteries themselves. However, these disputable areas are issues in <5% of scans.

  • Tom

    11/21/2007 4:30:00 AM |

    It's interesting that a 29 year old is able to track his plaque. I'm in my 60's now and recently found your site AFTER bypass surgery and a calcium score >700 via a 64 slice scan.
    In reading past comments, those of us having had the heart procedure are now unable to follow our progress via the cac score. Until this post I had hoped to use your recommended blood tests for indication of progress, but if LDL reduction achieves a modest risk reduction, we are left without a specific guide.
    Question: Was the progress in blood tests in dave's case a result of statins ?

  • Dr. Davis

    11/21/2007 12:46:00 PM |

    That's why lipoproteins are so important--they provide other indicators. In my experience, people who have LDL cholesterol as the sole cause of heart disease are a very small minority. The vast majority of people have multiple causes beyond LDL.

    Also, about 50% of people can still get a heart scan score after bypass surgery if you find a center willing to do a detailed analysis. You will need to ask.

    Also, I don't know what Dave did, since he is a reader and everything he posted is above. Are you there, Dave?

  • Dr. Davis

    11/21/2007 5:41:00 PM |

    Hi, Paul--

    I think your doctor might be confusing heart scans with CT coronary angiograms. She is right in saying that CT angiograms (using X-ray dye) require a lot of radiation; 100 chest x-rays worth with present technology.

    However, a plain heart scan to generate a heart scan score requires 4 chest x-rays worth on an EBT device, 8-10 on an 64-slice multi-detector device.

    See the Track Your Plaque Special Report, Radiation and Heart Scans: The Real Story at http://trackyourplaque.com/library/fl_06-021radiation.asp.

  • Anonymous

    11/21/2007 6:01:00 PM |

    Regarding repeatability, there is a 2005 study by Serukov, Bland, and Kondos that shows that the repeatability is a function of the square root of the calcium score, and that volume score is more repeatable than Agatston score. The reference is

    “Serial Electron Beam CT Measurements of Coronary Artery Calcium: Has Your Patient's Calcium Score Actually Changed?” Alexander B. Sevrukov, J. Martin Bland and George T. Kondos, American Journal of Roentgenology 2005; 185:1546-1553
    http://www.ajronline.org/cgi/content/full/185/6/1546

    In this report, the standard deviation of the difference between two sequential calcium scored is

    SDAG130 = 2.515 *sqrt(avg score)
    SDVol130 = 1.758 *sqrt(avg score)

    This results in the following values, where SDA is the standard deviation for the Agatston score and SDV is the standard deviation for the volume score.

    Score-SDA--%SDA--SDV--%SDV
    5-----5.62---112%---3.93--79%
    10----7.95---79%----5.55--56%
    20----11.2---56%----7.86--39%
    50----17.7---35%----12.4--25%
    100---25.1---25%----17.5--18%
    200---35.5---17%----24.8--12%
    300---43.5---14%----30.4--10%
    400---50.3---12%----35.1---9%
    500---56.2---11%----39.3---8%
    600---61.6---10%----43.0---7%
    700---66.5----9%----46.5---7%
    1000--79.5----7%----55.5---6%

    These values show why many people use 15% as a breakpoint - only if the score has changed by more than 15% can it be said that the change is real. And this is only true for scores above 200 or so.

    Harry

  • Anonymous

    11/21/2007 7:17:00 PM |

    My cardiologist told me that EBT scanning is not recommended for anyone under the age of 30. Is this true? If so, how do I (29 years) reliably know that I am at risk?

    I discovered your blog recently. Since I have a very bad family history of diabetes, high blood pressure, and cholesterol, I decided to visit a cardiologist last month so that I can request for an EBT scan. He said that I'm too young for that, and has instead asked me to take a Carotid IMT and Stress test - are these tests reliable enough to provide insight on my risk? Could these tests return "false positive" values?

    I had found during a blood test I did this July only to find that my triglycerides were at 600!! The other cholesterol values were bad too - totalC-HDL-LDL-Tri (255-31-Not measurable-600)

    Since then I have found your blog, lost around 25 lbs and did a VAP recently (I asked for NMR and all I got from doctors - what? What the heck is that?) So I settled for a VAP, since they knew about it.

    I did a VAP along with a comprehensive blood test and the measures that came up high were.

    LIPID related:
    Total LDL-C Direct:130 (Normal<130)
    Real LDL-C:110 (N<100)
    Sum Total LDL-C: 130 (<130)
    Remnant LIPO (IDL+VLDL3): 30 (<30)
    HDL-2:9 (>10)
    VLDL3: 14 (<10)

    Non-LIPID related high values:
    Uric Acid: 8.3  (4.0-8.0)
    Fasting Glucose: 104 (65-99)
    Creatine Kinase Total: 631 (<=200)


    LP PLA2 is normal: 164 (115-245)
    HBA1C suggests prediabetic: 5.7 (Normal <6%)


    Due to my very high value of CK Total, I researched online and found that this can increase due to high exercise, and I had it repeated after taking rest, and it returned normal results. My doctor was really surprised about this and initially hesitant to fractionise my CK. I feel empowered that I am able to take charge of my health and preventative care with the
    information that is available online (of course, one needs to tread that carefully and make an informed decision due to various conflicting opinions out there).

    Sorry for the long post, Doc. I have a newfound awareness of my health thanks to your blog, and am very much interested in knowing your inputs. I just hope that more physicians in our country follow your noble path and understand the true value and empowerment of preventive care.

    - Philip

  • Dr. Davis

    11/21/2007 8:09:00 PM |

    Hi, Philip--

    In general, 29 is very young, perhaps too young, unless there is an outstanding family history (e.g., father with heart attack at age 37). Although your lipid/lipoproteins are concerning, it would be highly unusual to have anything but a zero heart scan score at your age.

  • Dr. Davis

    11/21/2007 8:14:00 PM |

    Hi, Harry--
    Thanks for the help!

  • Neelesh

    11/22/2007 4:51:00 AM |

    Hi Dr. Davis,
      I've just bought the Track Your Plaque book, waiting for its arrival. I've had a heart attack a year back.I'm 30 years old with no family history, non-alcoholic, non-smoker and vegetarian.
    The event was attributed to ectatic arteries(Type-III) and a very high level of LP(a)- between 120-130. The standard lipid profile was also marginally higher. If I had not insisted for an LP(a) test after reading Dr Agatston's South Beach Heart Program, I would have never found the LP(a) factor.
       I was stented during the hospitalization and now I'm wondering how effective the heart scan will be, given that the accuracy reduces  with stented arteries (http://circ.ahajournals.org/cgi/content/meeting_abstract/114/18_MeetingAbstracts/II_692-a)

    Thanks!
    -Neelesh

  • Dr. Davis

    11/22/2007 2:35:00 PM |

    Hi, Neeleesh--

    I do advocate heart scanning in people with stents, but I generally suggest that only the unstented arteries be scored. It's imperfect, excluding the most diseased artery, but it's proven a useful compromise, leaving you with two "scorable" arteries.

    The study you cite, however, is not about heart scans, it's about CT coronary angiography, a study that yields "percent blockage" sort of information, not an index of plaque.

    Beyond Lp(a), you should strongly consider vitamin D normalization.  By your first name, I take it you are from India/Pakistan or similar background, an ethnic origin that is associated with severe vitamin D deficiency.

  • Neelesh

    11/22/2007 3:00:00 PM |

    Thanks Dr. Davis. And yes, I'm from India.

  • wccaguy

    11/22/2007 3:13:00 PM |

    Dr. Davis,

    I found your answer to Neeleesh to be interesting in the extreme.  I have a  follow up question to it.

    I don't have specific references for the two facts I have heard but couldn't reconcile:

    1   India has high coronary artery disease incidence.

    2   Your answer to Neeleesh states that vitamin d levels are low in India and Pakistan.  And that would help much to explain the high rate of coronary artery disease in these countries.

    3   And yet India is close to the equator and so vitamin d levels should be relatively high because of sun exposure right?

    The question then is this:  What is the cause of the low vitamin d level in those countries?

    Thanks!

  • Dr. Davis

    11/22/2007 4:00:00 PM |

    It is interesting, isn't it?

    I believe part of the explanation is that, the darker your skin complexion, the more you are "protected" from intense and prolonged sun exposure. But, activation of 7-hydrocholesterol to 25-OH-vitamin D3 may require many hours more exposure. Thus, a fair skinned person might activate D within minutes, while a dark skinned individual might require hours.

    Another factor that has not been thoroughly explored but has potential for yielding enormous insights: Vit D receptor genotypes. That is, vitamin D deficiency may express itself in different ways in different populations. Some might get colon cancer, others multiple sclerosis, others coronary disease.

    I believe that the dark-skinned phenomenon becomes especially an issue when migrating to sun-deprived climates such as the northern U.S.

  • wccaguy

    11/22/2007 6:12:00 PM |

    Hi Doc,

    Your explanation makes sense.

    I did a quick google search and found experts on the problem in India attributing it to the increasing extent to which Indians were staying indoors and not "being active."

    But the vitamin D issue throws the whole question of "activity" into question doesn't it?  It might not be the activity per se but instead the amount of sunlight reduction.

    And if, per your explanation, darker skinned people need more time in the sun than lighter skinned people for Vitamin D3 to be "activated" then than a decrease in sunlight would have more effect on darker skinned people than lighter skinned people.

    Very interesting...  And perhaps INCREDIBLY good news!!!

    Because it means that there might be a cheap effective treatment for the coronary disease epidemic in India.

    Does all that make sense?

  • wccaguy

    11/22/2007 6:19:00 PM |

    Just to follow up one more point on this D3 question...

    I guess what we need to do is find a study which shows a correlation between degree of skin pigmentation and Vitamin D3 activation?

    (I'm not sure if the word "degree" is the right word, but perhaps the question is understood anyway?)

    Answering that question would certainly set up the basis for a scientific study right?

  • Dr. Davis

    11/23/2007 12:56:00 AM |

    Yes, it does. It could serve as the basis for a tremendously interesting study.

  • Dr. Davis

    11/23/2007 1:09:00 AM |

    There are indeed a few studies that document this effect, e.g., Factors that influence the cutaneous synthesis and dietary sources of vitamin D (abstract viewable at Arch Biochem Biophys. 2007 Apr 15;460(2):213-7.)

    However, I am not aware of any study that examines the effect of vitamin D supplementation specifically in this population that tracks coronary atherosclerosis. One British study  in Bangladeshi adults did demonstrate dramatic reduction in inflammatory markers with vit D replacement (Circulating MMP9, vitamin D and variation in the TIMP-1 response with VDR genotype: mechanisms for inflammatory damage in chronic disorders? at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?Db=pubmed&Cmd=ShowDetailView&TermToSearch=12454321&ordinalpos=22&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum  ).

  • Dave K

    11/24/2007 12:21:00 AM |

    Hi Dr Davis,

    Sorry - I have been offline for a couple of days.  Interesting discussion.  I will try and add some detail lipid info.

    July 2007 Blood work showed

    My Lp(a) is 7
    IDL = 10
    VLDL=11
    HDL-2 = 15
    HDL-3 = 50
    VLDL C = 18
    VLDL1+2 = 7

    Currently taking fishoil 1700 mg of DHA+EHA
    Vitamin D 800mg - just incresed to 2000
    Baby Aspirin
    Multivitamin
    Crestor
    Just started Zetia after getting this last scan result
    Eat basic South Beach phase 3
    BMI - 27
    Glucose is 105
    Exercise 4X week...
    Lp-PLA2=120

    Blood pressure high-normal but I don't know about during exercise.  Cardilogist scheduled me for a stress test after this volume increase.

    I have not has a blood test for Vit D.

    Also - I had an angiograham after the first scan because I was having chests pains .... it turned up that I had no blockages whatsoever.  So we judged the chest pains as non cardiac.

    So I am following your list pretty close.  I guess I just have to wait to see how these changes do.  How long would you wait for another scan?

    Not sure what else to add - your website says to consider L-arginie...


    I do have a specific question.  In the scan report it shows where the calcium was found.  Don't know the software, but there was one spot where it showed in the early report that it didn't show in this report (of course there was several new areas) - could that have actually been a reversal at that spot?

  • Dr. Davis

    11/24/2007 1:25:00 AM |

    Small LDL and a deficiency of large HDL, along with modest excess weight, high blood sugar, high blood pressure all suggest you are (or were) likely over-dependent on processed carbohydrates like wheat products. Your pattern would likely respond vigorously to reduction or elimination of these foods and weight loss. Niacin can help this pattern. In our experience, normalization of vitamin D is crucial.

  • Dave K

    11/26/2007 5:51:00 AM |

    Dr Davis,

    Few more data ....

    Some of the treatments have only been for the last 6 months or so.  The Statin was first (of course) and it took almost a year to get something I could tolerate.  The we talked about Vit D (700) and fish oil (800 Omega 3).  After a full Lipid scan around 9 months ago - we decided to add more fish oil.  So the full dosage I listed is only 6 months old or so.

    Also - I love my red wine and I know the number says two glasses and i rarely do two - so its three or four ... which might be my next step....

    From your last response, I assume the VLDL and IDL levels are the ones you would target hardest at this point.

    Don't do a lot of sugar or wheat... Do eat Oatmeal everyday with rasins or blueberries.

    Oh and my other question was with this kind of increase how long would you wait for the next scan?

  • Dr. Davis

    11/26/2007 12:08:00 PM |

    Dave-

    I generally recommend waiting a year after all identifiable causes have been corrected. However, given your minimal doses of vit D, I usually have my patients wait at least six month after vitamin D blood levels are corrected.

  • Dave

    11/26/2007 8:01:00 PM |

    Dr Davis,

    Thank you ... keep up the great work and I'll keep reading... and tracking.

    Dave

  • G

    11/27/2007 12:39:00 AM |

    Neeleesh and DR. D,

    This Canadian physician appears to have a lot of indepth awareness of the diff phenotypes. He suggests (in the author's response) that D2 may not work as well in East Indians (may worsen glycemic control) versus D3 (the more biologically active vitamin D). Very fascinating!!

    http://www.cfp.ca/cgi/reprint/53/9/1435
    Repletion of vitamin D with vitamin D2 is common
    practice, and vitamin D2 can be used safely when monitored
    to achieve normal levels of 25(OH)D. This might
    take 2 to 3 months, as discussed in your letter and in my
    paper, because the half-life is about 2 weeks. Using vitamin
    D3 (1000 to 5000 IU) daily, depending on the level
    of deficiency, will also achieve this goal. I also agree
    that the goal is to achieve levels of 25(OH)D higher than
    100 nmol/L, preferably 100 to 125 nmol/L.
    My concern regarding vitamin D2 is that it is a synthetic
    analogue and might interact with the vitamin D
    receptor differently in various cell systems. It has been
    reported that vitamin D3 might improve glycemic control.
    7 Vitamin D2 has been reported to cause worsening
    of glycemic control in people of East Indian descent.8
    Is this because of vitamin D receptor polymorphism, or
    because of enhanced 24-hydroxylase enzyme activation,
    or is it due to how vitamin D2 interacts with the receptor?
    Until this has been sorted out, I feel safest using
    vitamin D3. There are about 2000 synthetic analogues
    of vitamin D. The search is on for one that can cross the
    blood-brain barrier to treat certain types of brain cancers
    without causing hypercalcemia.9 But then again,
    what other effects would this compound have? There
    are still so many unknowns.
    The first step is to recognize that most Canadians
    do not get enough vitamin D, especially in the winter
    months, because of where we live. This recognition
    might reduce the need for expensive drugs to treat
    various conditions and might improve the well-being of
    many Canadians.
    An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
    —Gerry Schwalfenberg MD CCFP
    Edmonton, Alta
    by e-mail

    here's the orig article which is one of the most excellent summaries I've seen so far -- great minds think alike -- they advise > 50ng/ml like DR. Davis as well!
    http://www.cfp.ca/cgi/reprint/53/5/841

  • Neelesh

    11/27/2007 4:05:00 AM |

    D,
    Interesting study indeed. Thanks for the information. I guess I have a lot of things to discuss with my cardiologist next week. Smile
    -Neelesh

  • chickadeenorth

    12/2/2007 11:16:00 PM |

    Hi to Gerry Schwalfenberg MD CCFP, do you know any Dr In Edtmn who practices Track your Plague, if so could you suggest names to help me. I live out by Jasper and need a skilled Dr in this treatment program, I would travel to Edtmn.Many thanks.
    chickadeenorth
    (hope its ok for me to ask this here)

  • cadoce66

    4/5/2008 8:37:00 PM |

    hi my aunts 63 yrs and she underwent an angioplasty with a medicated stent .. Shes on PLAVIX and her artery was 90% blocked and she had an evolving AWMI...
    Please advise what she should taketo prevent another blockage or heart attack!
    Thanks!

  • buy jeans

    11/3/2010 10:34:10 PM |

    So, Dave, please forgive your doctor his misunderstanding of the increase in your heart scan score. He is not alone in his ignorance of the data and parroting of the mainstream mis-information popular among the statin-is-the-answer-to-everything set.

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