Near-fatal brush with nattokinase

Here is precisely why I have spoken out against nattokinase: People may put faith in this "supplement" when there are virtually no data to support its use in such dangerous conditions as pulmonary embolism.

Pulmonary embolism occurs when a large volume of blood clots in the veins of the pelvis, abdomen, and into the legs. A clot breaks off and lodges in the pulmonary arteries of the lungs. This can be fatal within minutes to hours, the victim struggling to breathe, since oxygen is not transferred to the blood and it causes terrible pain in the chest.

The treatments are fairly obnoxious: intravenous anticoagulants (blood thinners), followed by oral blood thinners like warfarin. While they carry risk of bleeding and other long-term risks, it's better than dying.

Would you bet that a "nutritional supplement" manufacturer's vague claims and lack of data are sufficient proof to treat a life-threatening condition? You're a fool if you are.

Anyone reading these pages knows that I am a vigorous supporter of nutritional supplements. I even consult for the nutritonal supplement industry. But I am also an advocate of TRUTH, not BS.

Here is a woman from England who inquired whether she should stop her husband's warfarin in favor of nattokinase. This is precisely the sort of thing that can happen because of the campaign of misinformation behind nattokinase.


Dr. Davis,

Thank you for your very interesting blogs, which I came across searching for natural alternative treatments to warfarin.

My husband has been following the low carb, high fat, real food regime over the past few years. He got off all the blood pressure and cholesterol drugs and never felt better. He even got his blood sugar down from a recorded high that we are aware of 13 nmol/L (234 mg/dol) to 6.1 nmol/L 109.8 mg/dl).

We were on holiday in the Caribbean. Just before our return home, we did a trip to a neighbouring island that included non-alcoholic fruit punches. They tasted great, but were very sweet. I broke my normal refusal to drink these things, but only had a couple of glasses. (After all, we were on holiday!) My husband believes he consumed around 1.5 litres of the stuff and now realises he was feeding his body a very toxic product – fructose. That night, he had an incredible toxic response and we only got him onto the plane with a visit to the hospital and a pain killer injection.

The symptoms of pulmonary embolism only showed 2 weeks later . . . and warfarin treatment was started. We would both like to use an alternative therapy if we can find someone with experience to provide the support.Do you know of any studies that support alternative options?

Do you know of any practitioners in the England who support a non-drug approach with an understanding of nutrition who we may be able to receive advice and support?

FB
York, England

Glucophobia: The Novel

Just kidding: No novel here. However, there is indeed a story to tell that should scare the pants off you.

If you haven't yet gathered that carbohydrates are a macronutrient nightmare, let me recount the list:


Carbohydrates increase small LDL particles
Or, in the cholesterol-speak most people understand, "carbohydrates increase cholesterol." It's counterintuitive, but carbohydrates increase LDL substantially, far more than any fat.


Carbohydrates increase blood sugar
Eggs don't increase blood sugar, nor do chicken, raw almonds, onions or green peppers. But a bowl of oatmeal will send your blood sugar skywards.


Carbohydrates make you fat
Carbohydrates, whether in the form of wheat flour in your whole wheat bread, sucrose in your ice cream, fructose in your "organic Agave nectar," or high-fructose corn syrup in your dill pickles. They all provoke de novo lipogenesis, or fat formation. They also stimulate insulin, the hormone of fat storage.


Carbohydrates cause glycation
High blood sugar, like the kind that develops after a bowl of oatmeal, triggers glycation, or modification of proteins by glucose (blood sugar). This is how cataracts, kidney disease, and atherosclerotic plaque develop. Small LDL is 8-fold more glycation prone than large LDL, providing a carbohydrate double-whammy.


Your glucose meter remains the single best tool to gauge the quality of your diet. Many people have horror stories of the shocking experiences they've had when they finally get around to checking their postprandial glucose.

Drama with the Dr. Oz Show

A producer from the Dr. Oz show recently contacted my office. They asked whether we could supply them with a volunteer patient from either my practice or the Track Your Plaque program who would be willing to appear on the show and discuss heart disease prevention. They needed someone to commit within 24 hours.

Despite the short notice, we identified a volunteer. He flew to New York the following week where he was interviewed along with several other men and women, all of whom had heart disease (heart attacks, stents, etc.). However, as this young man is very slender and follows most of the Track Your Plaque principles (e.g., vitamin D and omega-3 fatty acid supplementation; no wheat, cornstarch, or sugars, no restriction of fat, etc.), he apparently received less attention than the overweight, I-know-nothing-about-diet interviewees.

Then there was an odd turn of events: Dr. Dean Ornish, apparently a friend of Dr. Oz, will be providing the dietary counseling. The producer had made no mention of Dr. Ornish.

Now that's an odd collision of philosophies: Our Track Your Plaque version of low-carb with the guru of low-fat, Dr. Ornish.

The following week, Dr. Ornish called me and graciously asked whether I was okay with this. I'm not sure just how much he knew about the philosophy I advocate, nor how much I have bashed his program as a destructive approach to diet, nor whether he knew that I gained 30 lbs on the Ornish diet, along with a drop in HDL to 27 mg/dl, increased triglycerides to 350 mg/dl, and type II diabetes that I've talked about on this blog and the Track Your Plaque book and website. I suspect he knew little to none of this.

Anyway, I tried to diplomatically explain that my patient's cause for coronary plaque was small LDL particles that he expressed despite his very slender build, likely from excessive carbohydrates, controlled with carbohydrate restriction. Dr. Ornish maintained his usual arguments: Grains are good, provided they are whole grains, heart disease is "reversed" with his diet program, etc. (I didn't want to challenge him in a phone call and tell him that he never actually reversed coronary plaque, but just reversed endothelial dysfunction. But, as Dr. Ornish is not a cardiologist, I wasn't sure how far his understanding of these issues went.)

We agreed to disagree. This leaves my poor patient in an odd position: Being asked by Dr. Ornish and the Dr. Oz show to follow a low-fat program for the sake of entertainment, or adhering to the advice we follow that has so far served him well, given his small LDL particle size tendencies.

We'll see where this little drama leads.

Response from Nature Made

Here's the response from Nature Made when I emailed them about my concern that there appears to be no vitamin D in their vitamin D gelcaps.

It is the usually CYA corporate-speak that says nothing. The grammatical errors make it clear that this was a "canned" response.



Date: April 9, 2010
From: Marissa Reyes, Consumer Affairs Department
Subject: Reference #346236

Dear William Davis, MD:

We recently received your e-mail regarding Nature Made products. We regret to
hear that the quality standards of our company. [?]

Our company is called Pharmavite, and we manufacture Nature Made nutritional
supplements. We have been in business since 1971. We are committed to quality
control, and have very high quality standards. Our Quality Control personnel
sample and test all raw materials as they enter our plant, and again assay the
finished product, before final packaging.

Dietary Supplements are regulated under the FDA through DSHEA (Dietary
Supplement Health & Education Act of 1994). The United States Pharmacopoeia
(USP) establishes standards for the composition of drugs and nutritional
supplements. This voluntary non governmental organization was set up in 1820
and has officially been recognized by federal law since 1906. Standards
established by USP for products are legally enforceable by the FDA. At
Pharmavite we participate in the USP Dietary Supplement Verification Program
(DSVP). Many of our products have earned the DSVP seal and additional products
are currently being evaluated. Our DSVP certified products will have the DSVP
seal on the product label.

Our Nature Made Vitamin D 400 IU tablets have been reviewed by the USP and bears
the DSVP symbol on the label. Although the USP has not reviewed all of the
Nature Made Vitamin D supplements, all of our products go through the same
rigorous quality testing at Pharmavite. The products which have earned the seal
help us to demonstrate the high quality of our products.

We would like to look into the product(s) your patients have been using. If you
could provide the UPC and lot numbers of the product(s), we will be happy to
review our records. In addition, if you would like us to test the product(s)
that you currently have, we will be pleased to send a prepaid postage mailer so
you may return the product(s) to us so that our Quality Control Department can
examine it. Please let us know if you would like us to send you the prepaid
postage mailer.

We thank you for contacting us and hope that you will continue to use and enjoy
Nature Made products with complete confidence.

Sincerely,
Marissa Reyes
Consumer Affairs Coordinator
Pharmavite, LLC
MR:346236-10



Patients who come to the office do not provide me with the bottles nor lot numbers. In past, when I've gone to the trouble of doing this (with other companies, not Nature Made), it has come to nothing helpful. The information gets passed on to the company and we hear nothing and never learn if there was a problem, or receive some more corporate-speak letter saying everything was fine. This is obviously a liability-avoidance tactic: Admitting that something was wrong would open them up to legal risk. So, frankly, I can't be bothered.

So we are left with the unsatisfying experience of relying on street-level experiences.

For now, my advice: Avoid Nature Made vitamin D. Too many people have had blood tests demonstrating that they are not obtaining any vitamin D.

By the way, the Nature Made brand of fish oil is among the very few problem brands of fish oil we've encountered. Fish oil should be only mildly fish in smell and generally should not cause stomach upset and excessive belching if properly purified. Nature Made is excessively fishy when you smell it, suggesting oxidation. We've had repeated (dozens) of patients who have experienced difficulties with this brand. Rather than dealing with the frustrating gobbledy-gook of this company, just avoid their products.

What to Eat: The diet is defined by small LDL

I approach diet from the perspective of small LDL particles.

Small LDL particles have exploded in frequency and severity in Americans. It is not at all uncommon to see 70% or more small LDL particles (i.e., 70% of total LDL particle number or Apo B) on lipoprotein testing. (I saw two people today who began with over 95% small LDL.)

Small LDL particles are:
--More likely to persist in the bloodstream longer than large LDL particles.
--More likely to adhere to components of atherosclerotic plaque.
--More likely to gain entry to plaque.
--More likely to be taken up by inflammatory white blood cells which, in turn, become the mast cells that fill coronary plaque.
--More likely to be oxidized.
--More likely to be glycated (8-fold more likely than large)

To add insult to injury, foods that trigger small LDL formation--i.e., carbohydrates--also cause high postprandial blood sugars. High postprandial blood sugars, in turn, glycate small LDL. That combination of events accelerates 1) plaque growth, 2) plaque instability, and 3) aging.

So carbohydrates trigger this sequence, carbohydrates of all stripes and colors. Not just "white" carbohydrates, but ALL carbohydrates. It's all a matter of degree and quantity. So, yes, even quinoa, bulghur, and sorghum trigger this process. I've only recently appreciated just how bad oats and oatmeal are in this regard--really bad.

Foods that trigger small LDL also trigger higher blood sugars; foods that trigger higher blood sugars also trigger small LDL. Small LDL and blood sugar are two different things, but they track each other very closely.

So, in the Track Your Plaque approach to diet, we craft diet based on these simple principles:

1) Eliminate wheat, cornstarch, and sugars--These are the most flagrant triggers of small LDL, blood sugar, and, therefore, LDL glycation.
2) The inclusion of other carbohydrates, such as oatmeal, quinoa, rye, etc. depends on individual sensitivity. Individual sensitivity is best gauged by assessing one-hour postprandial glucose.

Stay tuned for more in this series. Also, Track Your Plaque Members: We will be having an in-depth webinar detailing more on thees principles in the next couple of weeks.

Is it or isn't it vitamin D?

Jackie takes 10,000 units of vitamin D(3) per day as a gelcap.

Her starting 25-hydroxy vitamin D blood level was 18.1 ng/ml. Severe deficiency, no surprise.

On her 10,000 units per day, Vitamin Shoppe brand, her 25-hydroxy vitamin D level was 76.2 ng/ml--perfect. It stayed in this range for about two years.

She then changed to the Nature Made brand gelcaps she picked up at Walgreen's. Repeat 25-hydroxy vitamin D level: 23 ng/ml.

This has now happened with five different people, all taking the Nature Made brand.

If you are taking this brand of vitamin D, please be on the alert. You might consider a 25-hydroxy vitamin D blood level to be sure it actually has the vitamin D it's supposed to have.

Or, change brands.

What to eat: Part I

I've spent a good number of Heart Scan Blog posts detailing what foods to limit or avoid.

The list of unquestionably bad foods to avoid include foods made of wheat, cornstarch, and sugars. Fructose is proving to be an exceptionally bad form of sugar, worse than any other. I've issued warnings about levels of carbohydrates that can be determined by postprandial testing.

In response to several requests to clarify what foods to eat, this post begins a series discussing what foods are good to eat.

I believe that a strong case can be made for eating vegetables in nearly all its varied forms, from cucumbers to peppers to leafy vegetables to eggplant to alliums like onions. The only form we avoid are red and white potatoes due to the blood sugar-increasing effects.

While this seems obvious, I am impressed how many people who follow low-carb diets find themselves following a high-animal product diet with vegetables as the sideline. It should be the other way around: A high vegetable diet with animal products as the sideline.

Vegetables are your principal source of:

1) Flavonoids and polyphenols--e.g., anthocyanins and catechins. All the recently appreciated effects of flavonoids and polyphenols highlight the wonderful effects of compounds originating in plant foods. This includes the anthocyanins and resveratrol in red wine; the catechins and epicatechins cocoa and green tea; the hydroxytyrosol, phenolic acid, and flavonoids of olive oil.

2) Fiber--Fiber is essentially a plant phenomenon, since there is virtually none in chicken, fish, and beef. The benefits of fiber are, I believe, undisputed. Neglecting fiber can, at the very least, lead to a nasty case of hemorrhoids. At the worst, it is related to various cancers, especially colon cancer.

3) Vitamin C--While vitamin C may be old and boring in light of new, exciting discoveries like flavonoids, neglect leads to bad things.

Vegetables are generally classified as carbohydrate foods, since they are low in protein and fat. But this is the source of carbohydrates you do not want to sacrifice in a low-carbohydrate diet. There's just too much good from vegetables.

Notice that I didn't say "fruits and vegetables." This is a fundamental mistake made by many: Oveconsumption of fruits. I've even seen people who follow an otherwise good diet develop diabetes--just from too much fruit.

Vegetables should be the cornerstone of the human diet. But I'll bet you knew that already.

Carbohydrates and LDL

There's a curious and powerful relationship between carbohydrates and LDL particles. Understanding this relationship is crucial to gaining control over heart disease risk.

(Note that I did not say "LDL cholesterol"--This is what confuses people, the notion that cholesterol is used as a surrogate marker to quantify various lipoproteins, including low-density lipoproteins, LDL. I'm NOT interested in the cholesterol; I'm interested in the behavior of the low-density lipoprotein particle. There's a difference.)

Carbohydrates:

1) Increase triglycerides and very low-density lipoprotein particles (VLDL)
2) Triglyceride-rich VLDL interact with LDL particles, making them smaller. (A process mediated by several enzymes, such as cholesteryl-ester transfer protein.)
3) Smaller LDL particles are more oxidizable--Oxidized LDL particles are the sort that are taken up by inflammatory white blood cells residing in the artery wall and atherosclerotic plaque.
4) Smaller LDL particles are more glycatable--Glycation of LDL is an important phenomenon that makes the LDL particle more atherogenic (plaque-causing). Glycated LDLs are not recognized by the LDL receptor, causing them to persist in the bloodstream longer than non-glcyated LDL. Glycated LDL is therefore taken up by inflammatory white blood cells in plaque.

Of course, carbohydrates also make you fat, further fueling the fire of this sequence.

The key is to break this chain: Cut out the carbohydrates. Cut carbohydrates and VLDL and triglycerides drop (dramatically), VLDL are unavailable to transform large LDL into small LDL, small LDL is no longer available to become oxidized and glycated, blood sugar is reduced to allow less glycation. Voila: Less atherosclerotic plaque growth.

Yet the USDA, American Heart Association, and the Surgeon General's office all advise you to eat more carbohydrates. The American Diabetes Association tells you to eat 70 grams or so carbohydrates per meal. (Yes: Diabetes, the condition that is MOST susceptible to these carbohydrate effects.) Follow their advice and you gain weight; triglycerides and VLDL go up; calculated (Friedewald) LDL may or may not go up, but true measured LDL (NMR LDL particle number or apoprotein B) goes way up; small LDL is triggered . . . You know the rest.

The dance between carbohydrates and LDL particles requires the participation of both. Allow one partner to drop out of the dance and LDL particles will sit this dance out.

Strange but true: Part II

Here's the second part of the Heart Scan Blog post I wrote a couple of years back describing the wacky origins of this thing that has so changed the face of heart care in the U.S., the cardiac catheterization.

Heart catheterization: Strange, but true

It's a couple of years old, but this post from March, 2008, remains relevant.

It details the curious origins of heart catheterization, the procedure that has saved some lives, but also been responsible for the proliferation of unnecessary heart procedures.



The modern era of heart disease care was born from an accident, quirky personalities, and even a little daring.

The notion of heart catheterization to visualize the human heart began rather ignominiously in 1929 at the Auguste-Viktoria Hospital in Eberswalde, Germany, a technological backwater of the day. Inspired by descriptions of a French physician who inserted a tube into the jugular vein of a horse and felt transmitted heart impulses outside the body, Dr. Werner Forssmann, an eager 25-year old physician-in-training, was intent on proving that access to the human heart could be safely gained through a surface blood vessel. No one knew if passing a catheter into the human heart would be safe, or whether it would become tangled in the heart’s chambers and cause it to stop beating. On voicing his intentions, Forssmann was ordered by superiors not to proceed. But he was determined to settle the question, especially since his ambitions captured the interest of nurse Gerda Ditzen, who willingly even offered to become the first human subject of his little experiment.

Secretly gathering the necessary supplies, he made his first attempt in private. After applying a local anesthetic, he used a scalpel to make an incision in his left elbow. He then inserted a hollow tube, a catheter intended for the bladder, into the vein exposed under the skin. After passing the catheter 14 inches into his arm, however, he experienced cold feet and pulled it out.



One week later, Forssman regained his resolve and repeated the process. Nurse Ditzen begged to be the subject, but Forssmann, in order to allow himself to be the first subject, tricked her into being strapped down and proceeded to work on himself while she helplessly watched. After stanching the oozing blood from the wound, he threaded the catheter slowly and painfully into the cephalic vein, up through the bicep, past the shoulder and subclavian vein, then down towards the heart. He knew that simply nudging the rubber catheter forward would be sufficient to direct it to the heart, since all veins of the body lead there. With the catheter buried 25 inches into his body, Forssmann untied the fuming Ditzen. Both then ran to the hospital’s basement x-ray department and injected x-ray dye into the catheter, yielding an image of the right side of his heart, the first made in a living human.

Thus, the very first catheterization of the heart was performed.

An x-ray image was made to document the accomplishment. Upon hearing of the experiment, Forssmann was promptly fired by superiors for his brazen act of self-experimentation. Deflated, Forssmann abandoned his experimentation and went on to practice urology. He became a member of the Nazi party in World War II Germany and served in the German army. Though condemned as crazy by some, physicians in Europe and the U.S., after hearing of his experience, furthered the effort and continued to explore the potential of the technique. Forssmann himself was never invited to speak of his experiences outside of Germany, as he had been labeled a Nazi.

Many years after his furtive experiments, the once intrepid Dr. Forssmann was living a quiet life practicing small town medicine. He received an unexpected phone call informing him that he was one of three physicians chosen to receive the 1956 Nobel Prize for Medicine for his pioneering work performing the world’s first heart catheterization, along with Drs. André Cournand and Dickinson W. Richards, both of whom had furthered Forssmann’s early work. Forssmann remarked to a reporter that he felt like a village pastor who was made a cardinal.

Strange, but true.
Is an increase in heart scan score GOOD?

Is an increase in heart scan score GOOD?

In response to an earlier Heart Scan Blog post, I don't care about hard plaque!, reader Dave responded:

Hello Dr Davis,

Interesting post about hard and soft plaque. I recently had a discussion with my GP regarding my serious increase in scan score (Jan 2006 = 235, Nov 2007 = 419).

After the first scan we started aggressively going after my LDL, HDL and Trig...196,59,221

And have them down to 103, 65, 92 - we still have a way to go to 60/60/60 [The Track Your Plaque target values]-

So the increase is a surprise, but my doctor said that the increase could in part be cause some of the soft plaque had been converted to hard plaque and the scan would show that conversion.



Dave's doctor then responded to him with this comment:

"Remember that although your coronary calcium score has gone up, this does not mean that you are at greater risk than you were a year ago. Remember that the most dangerous plaque is the not-yet calcified soft plaque, which will not show up on an EBT [i.e., calcium score]. It is only the safe, calcified plaque that can be measured with the EBT. [Emphasis mine.] For your score to go up like it did, while your lipids came down so much, what had to happen was that lots of dangerous unstable plaque was converted to stable, calcified plaque. There are no accepted guidelines for interpreting changes in calcium scores over time, because the scores tend to go up as treatment converts dangerous plaque to safer plaque. We do know that aggressively lowering LDL reduces both unstable and stable plaque, and we know that risk can be further lowered by adjuvant therapy such as I listed above."


Huh?

This bit of conventional "wisdom" is something I've heard repeated many times. Is it true?

It is absolutely NOT true. In fact, the opposite is true: Dave's substantial increase in heart scan score from 235 to 419 over 22 months, representing a 78% increase, or an annualized rate of increase of 37%. This suggests a large increase in his risk for heart attack, not a decrease. Big difference!

Dr. Paulo Raggi's 2004 study, Progression of coronary artery calcium and risk of first myocardial infarction in patients receiving cholesterol-lowering therapy in 495 participants addresses this question especially well. Two heart scans were performed three years apart, with a statin drug initiated after the first scan, regardless of score.

During the period of study, heart attacks occurred in 41 participants. When these participants were analyzed, it was found that the average annual increase in score over the three year period was 42%. The average annual rate of increase in those free of heart attack was 17%. The group with the 42% annual rate of increase--all on statin drugs--the risk of heart attack was 17.2-fold greater, or 1720%.

The report made several other important observations:

--20% of the heart attack-free participants showed reduction of heart scan scores, i.e., reversal. None of the participants experiencing heart attack had a score reduction.
--Only 2 of the 41 heart attacks occurred in participants with <15% per year annual growth, while the rest (39) showed larger increases.
--The intensity of LDL reduction made no difference in whether heart attacks occurred or not. Those with LDL<100 mg/dl fared no better than those with LDL>100 mg/dl.

Dr. Raggi et al concluded:

"The risk of hard events [heart attack] was significantly higher in the presence of CVS [calcium volume score] progression despite low LDL serum levels, although the interaction of CVS change and LDL level on treatment was highly significant. The latter observation strongly suggests that a combination of serum markers and vascular markers [emphasis mine] may constitute a better way to gauge therapeutic effectiveness than isolated measurement of lipid levels."

This study demonstrates an important principle: Rising heart scan scores signal potential danger, regardless of LDL cholesterol treatment. Yes, LDL reduction does achieve a modest reduction in heart attack, but it does not eliminate them--not even close.

These are among the reasons that, in the Track Your Plaque program, we aim to correct more than LDL cholesterol. We aim to correct ALL causes of coronary plaque, factors that can be responsible for continuing increase in heart scan score despite favorable LDL cholesterol values.

So, Dave, please forgive your doctor his misunderstanding of the increase in your heart scan score. He is not alone in his ignorance of the data and parroting of the mainstream mis-information popular among the statin-is-the-answer-to-everything set.

Just don't let your doctor's ignorance permit the heart attack that is clearly in the stars. Take preventive action now.

Comments (30) -

  • Anonymous

    11/20/2007 5:41:00 PM |

    Dr Davis,

    What should Dave do?  He appears to have improved his LDL:HDL ratio as well as his total C to HDL ratio substantially, but his CAC score jumped significantly.  Maybe look at other risk factors?

    The info here gives no indication of median blood pressure for Dave.  LP(a)?  No indication of particle sizes. But, which of these or others would be most likely to be Dave's downfall in attempting to mitigate a future hard endpoint?

    I don't ask this lightly, I myself am trying to follow the TYP program and keep my high-for-my-age 29 CAC score from growning.  But, I'm frankly not looking forward to my rescan in about a year.  I'm a bit worried about the, "What if my scan shows a dramatic increase?  What then?"

    Thank you for the valuable information you provide.

    :LaughingCT

  • Dr. Davis

    11/20/2007 11:17:00 PM |

    I would urge Dave to follow all the principles of the Track Your Plaque program, including:

    1) Fish oil to provide minimum 1200 mg EPA + DHA per day

    2) Correction of all concealed lipoprotein patterns such as IDL and Lp(a)

    3) Vitamin D raised to 50 ng/ml--crucial!

    4) Normalization of blood pressure, including during exericse.

    5) Normal blood sugar (<100 mg/dl).

    Further efforts might be required, depending on the long-term effects on rate of plaque growth.

  • Ross

    11/21/2007 3:41:00 AM |

    My question is: how repeatable do you think the scores are on the CT scan?  Are they bulletproof (+/- 5% no matter where measured), consistent by analyst (+/- 5% with the same doctor analyzing the scan), or...?  

    I am currently visiting my brother in law, who is an FP doctor with a private practice.  One of his professional friends, a cardiologist who seems a cut above (thinks stenting is a cop-out), recently told him that he only trusted two centers in the mid-Ohio region to score a 16-slice CT scan accurately, and that even then, the variability was still too high for his taste.  Two numbers within 20% were within his expected error bars and weren't different enough to indicate any change to him.  Two different scan centers?  He wouldn't even compare the two scan scores.

    In my own job (software), I've had to manage human-measured numbers over and over again.  One observation keeps coming up: a single value doesn't mean much without an understanding of the accuracy of that value.  I really am curious about how you estimate confidence intervals on CT scan scores.

  • Dr. Davis

    11/21/2007 3:55:00 AM |

    Hi, Ross--

    Excellent questions.

    Several thoughts:

    1) 16-slice scanners are, unfortunately, prone to wider error in heart scan scoring, perhaps as much as 20%. The variation in scoring on an EBT or 64-slice device is far less.

    2) Variation from scan to scan, when expressed as percent, depends to a great degree on the score itself. Lumping all scores together, variation should be no more than 8-9%. However,a low score of, say 2, then repeated at 4 means 100% variation. However, the same absolute difference of 2 but with a score of 1002 and repeated at 1004 is <1% variation. Therefore, higher scores assume much less percent variation, usually <5%.

    3) Variation among different reading physicians tends to be a minor issue, since much of the scoring is done by standard criteria determined by software, not the human eye. The only real source of human variation comes from disputable areas, such as the mitral valve (which can sometimes encroach into the coronary area and appear like plaque) and the mouth of arteries, which can be debated as being in the aorta or in the coronary arteries themselves. However, these disputable areas are issues in <5% of scans.

  • Tom

    11/21/2007 4:30:00 AM |

    It's interesting that a 29 year old is able to track his plaque. I'm in my 60's now and recently found your site AFTER bypass surgery and a calcium score >700 via a 64 slice scan.
    In reading past comments, those of us having had the heart procedure are now unable to follow our progress via the cac score. Until this post I had hoped to use your recommended blood tests for indication of progress, but if LDL reduction achieves a modest risk reduction, we are left without a specific guide.
    Question: Was the progress in blood tests in dave's case a result of statins ?

  • Dr. Davis

    11/21/2007 12:46:00 PM |

    That's why lipoproteins are so important--they provide other indicators. In my experience, people who have LDL cholesterol as the sole cause of heart disease are a very small minority. The vast majority of people have multiple causes beyond LDL.

    Also, about 50% of people can still get a heart scan score after bypass surgery if you find a center willing to do a detailed analysis. You will need to ask.

    Also, I don't know what Dave did, since he is a reader and everything he posted is above. Are you there, Dave?

  • Dr. Davis

    11/21/2007 5:41:00 PM |

    Hi, Paul--

    I think your doctor might be confusing heart scans with CT coronary angiograms. She is right in saying that CT angiograms (using X-ray dye) require a lot of radiation; 100 chest x-rays worth with present technology.

    However, a plain heart scan to generate a heart scan score requires 4 chest x-rays worth on an EBT device, 8-10 on an 64-slice multi-detector device.

    See the Track Your Plaque Special Report, Radiation and Heart Scans: The Real Story at http://trackyourplaque.com/library/fl_06-021radiation.asp.

  • Anonymous

    11/21/2007 6:01:00 PM |

    Regarding repeatability, there is a 2005 study by Serukov, Bland, and Kondos that shows that the repeatability is a function of the square root of the calcium score, and that volume score is more repeatable than Agatston score. The reference is

    “Serial Electron Beam CT Measurements of Coronary Artery Calcium: Has Your Patient's Calcium Score Actually Changed?” Alexander B. Sevrukov, J. Martin Bland and George T. Kondos, American Journal of Roentgenology 2005; 185:1546-1553
    http://www.ajronline.org/cgi/content/full/185/6/1546

    In this report, the standard deviation of the difference between two sequential calcium scored is

    SDAG130 = 2.515 *sqrt(avg score)
    SDVol130 = 1.758 *sqrt(avg score)

    This results in the following values, where SDA is the standard deviation for the Agatston score and SDV is the standard deviation for the volume score.

    Score-SDA--%SDA--SDV--%SDV
    5-----5.62---112%---3.93--79%
    10----7.95---79%----5.55--56%
    20----11.2---56%----7.86--39%
    50----17.7---35%----12.4--25%
    100---25.1---25%----17.5--18%
    200---35.5---17%----24.8--12%
    300---43.5---14%----30.4--10%
    400---50.3---12%----35.1---9%
    500---56.2---11%----39.3---8%
    600---61.6---10%----43.0---7%
    700---66.5----9%----46.5---7%
    1000--79.5----7%----55.5---6%

    These values show why many people use 15% as a breakpoint - only if the score has changed by more than 15% can it be said that the change is real. And this is only true for scores above 200 or so.

    Harry

  • Anonymous

    11/21/2007 7:17:00 PM |

    My cardiologist told me that EBT scanning is not recommended for anyone under the age of 30. Is this true? If so, how do I (29 years) reliably know that I am at risk?

    I discovered your blog recently. Since I have a very bad family history of diabetes, high blood pressure, and cholesterol, I decided to visit a cardiologist last month so that I can request for an EBT scan. He said that I'm too young for that, and has instead asked me to take a Carotid IMT and Stress test - are these tests reliable enough to provide insight on my risk? Could these tests return "false positive" values?

    I had found during a blood test I did this July only to find that my triglycerides were at 600!! The other cholesterol values were bad too - totalC-HDL-LDL-Tri (255-31-Not measurable-600)

    Since then I have found your blog, lost around 25 lbs and did a VAP recently (I asked for NMR and all I got from doctors - what? What the heck is that?) So I settled for a VAP, since they knew about it.

    I did a VAP along with a comprehensive blood test and the measures that came up high were.

    LIPID related:
    Total LDL-C Direct:130 (Normal<130)
    Real LDL-C:110 (N<100)
    Sum Total LDL-C: 130 (<130)
    Remnant LIPO (IDL+VLDL3): 30 (<30)
    HDL-2:9 (>10)
    VLDL3: 14 (<10)

    Non-LIPID related high values:
    Uric Acid: 8.3  (4.0-8.0)
    Fasting Glucose: 104 (65-99)
    Creatine Kinase Total: 631 (<=200)


    LP PLA2 is normal: 164 (115-245)
    HBA1C suggests prediabetic: 5.7 (Normal <6%)


    Due to my very high value of CK Total, I researched online and found that this can increase due to high exercise, and I had it repeated after taking rest, and it returned normal results. My doctor was really surprised about this and initially hesitant to fractionise my CK. I feel empowered that I am able to take charge of my health and preventative care with the
    information that is available online (of course, one needs to tread that carefully and make an informed decision due to various conflicting opinions out there).

    Sorry for the long post, Doc. I have a newfound awareness of my health thanks to your blog, and am very much interested in knowing your inputs. I just hope that more physicians in our country follow your noble path and understand the true value and empowerment of preventive care.

    - Philip

  • Dr. Davis

    11/21/2007 8:09:00 PM |

    Hi, Philip--

    In general, 29 is very young, perhaps too young, unless there is an outstanding family history (e.g., father with heart attack at age 37). Although your lipid/lipoproteins are concerning, it would be highly unusual to have anything but a zero heart scan score at your age.

  • Dr. Davis

    11/21/2007 8:14:00 PM |

    Hi, Harry--
    Thanks for the help!

  • Neelesh

    11/22/2007 4:51:00 AM |

    Hi Dr. Davis,
      I've just bought the Track Your Plaque book, waiting for its arrival. I've had a heart attack a year back.I'm 30 years old with no family history, non-alcoholic, non-smoker and vegetarian.
    The event was attributed to ectatic arteries(Type-III) and a very high level of LP(a)- between 120-130. The standard lipid profile was also marginally higher. If I had not insisted for an LP(a) test after reading Dr Agatston's South Beach Heart Program, I would have never found the LP(a) factor.
       I was stented during the hospitalization and now I'm wondering how effective the heart scan will be, given that the accuracy reduces  with stented arteries (http://circ.ahajournals.org/cgi/content/meeting_abstract/114/18_MeetingAbstracts/II_692-a)

    Thanks!
    -Neelesh

  • Dr. Davis

    11/22/2007 2:35:00 PM |

    Hi, Neeleesh--

    I do advocate heart scanning in people with stents, but I generally suggest that only the unstented arteries be scored. It's imperfect, excluding the most diseased artery, but it's proven a useful compromise, leaving you with two "scorable" arteries.

    The study you cite, however, is not about heart scans, it's about CT coronary angiography, a study that yields "percent blockage" sort of information, not an index of plaque.

    Beyond Lp(a), you should strongly consider vitamin D normalization.  By your first name, I take it you are from India/Pakistan or similar background, an ethnic origin that is associated with severe vitamin D deficiency.

  • Neelesh

    11/22/2007 3:00:00 PM |

    Thanks Dr. Davis. And yes, I'm from India.

  • wccaguy

    11/22/2007 3:13:00 PM |

    Dr. Davis,

    I found your answer to Neeleesh to be interesting in the extreme.  I have a  follow up question to it.

    I don't have specific references for the two facts I have heard but couldn't reconcile:

    1   India has high coronary artery disease incidence.

    2   Your answer to Neeleesh states that vitamin d levels are low in India and Pakistan.  And that would help much to explain the high rate of coronary artery disease in these countries.

    3   And yet India is close to the equator and so vitamin d levels should be relatively high because of sun exposure right?

    The question then is this:  What is the cause of the low vitamin d level in those countries?

    Thanks!

  • Dr. Davis

    11/22/2007 4:00:00 PM |

    It is interesting, isn't it?

    I believe part of the explanation is that, the darker your skin complexion, the more you are "protected" from intense and prolonged sun exposure. But, activation of 7-hydrocholesterol to 25-OH-vitamin D3 may require many hours more exposure. Thus, a fair skinned person might activate D within minutes, while a dark skinned individual might require hours.

    Another factor that has not been thoroughly explored but has potential for yielding enormous insights: Vit D receptor genotypes. That is, vitamin D deficiency may express itself in different ways in different populations. Some might get colon cancer, others multiple sclerosis, others coronary disease.

    I believe that the dark-skinned phenomenon becomes especially an issue when migrating to sun-deprived climates such as the northern U.S.

  • wccaguy

    11/22/2007 6:12:00 PM |

    Hi Doc,

    Your explanation makes sense.

    I did a quick google search and found experts on the problem in India attributing it to the increasing extent to which Indians were staying indoors and not "being active."

    But the vitamin D issue throws the whole question of "activity" into question doesn't it?  It might not be the activity per se but instead the amount of sunlight reduction.

    And if, per your explanation, darker skinned people need more time in the sun than lighter skinned people for Vitamin D3 to be "activated" then than a decrease in sunlight would have more effect on darker skinned people than lighter skinned people.

    Very interesting...  And perhaps INCREDIBLY good news!!!

    Because it means that there might be a cheap effective treatment for the coronary disease epidemic in India.

    Does all that make sense?

  • wccaguy

    11/22/2007 6:19:00 PM |

    Just to follow up one more point on this D3 question...

    I guess what we need to do is find a study which shows a correlation between degree of skin pigmentation and Vitamin D3 activation?

    (I'm not sure if the word "degree" is the right word, but perhaps the question is understood anyway?)

    Answering that question would certainly set up the basis for a scientific study right?

  • Dr. Davis

    11/23/2007 12:56:00 AM |

    Yes, it does. It could serve as the basis for a tremendously interesting study.

  • Dr. Davis

    11/23/2007 1:09:00 AM |

    There are indeed a few studies that document this effect, e.g., Factors that influence the cutaneous synthesis and dietary sources of vitamin D (abstract viewable at Arch Biochem Biophys. 2007 Apr 15;460(2):213-7.)

    However, I am not aware of any study that examines the effect of vitamin D supplementation specifically in this population that tracks coronary atherosclerosis. One British study  in Bangladeshi adults did demonstrate dramatic reduction in inflammatory markers with vit D replacement (Circulating MMP9, vitamin D and variation in the TIMP-1 response with VDR genotype: mechanisms for inflammatory damage in chronic disorders? at http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?Db=pubmed&Cmd=ShowDetailView&TermToSearch=12454321&ordinalpos=22&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_RVDocSum  ).

  • Dave K

    11/24/2007 12:21:00 AM |

    Hi Dr Davis,

    Sorry - I have been offline for a couple of days.  Interesting discussion.  I will try and add some detail lipid info.

    July 2007 Blood work showed

    My Lp(a) is 7
    IDL = 10
    VLDL=11
    HDL-2 = 15
    HDL-3 = 50
    VLDL C = 18
    VLDL1+2 = 7

    Currently taking fishoil 1700 mg of DHA+EHA
    Vitamin D 800mg - just incresed to 2000
    Baby Aspirin
    Multivitamin
    Crestor
    Just started Zetia after getting this last scan result
    Eat basic South Beach phase 3
    BMI - 27
    Glucose is 105
    Exercise 4X week...
    Lp-PLA2=120

    Blood pressure high-normal but I don't know about during exercise.  Cardilogist scheduled me for a stress test after this volume increase.

    I have not has a blood test for Vit D.

    Also - I had an angiograham after the first scan because I was having chests pains .... it turned up that I had no blockages whatsoever.  So we judged the chest pains as non cardiac.

    So I am following your list pretty close.  I guess I just have to wait to see how these changes do.  How long would you wait for another scan?

    Not sure what else to add - your website says to consider L-arginie...


    I do have a specific question.  In the scan report it shows where the calcium was found.  Don't know the software, but there was one spot where it showed in the early report that it didn't show in this report (of course there was several new areas) - could that have actually been a reversal at that spot?

  • Dr. Davis

    11/24/2007 1:25:00 AM |

    Small LDL and a deficiency of large HDL, along with modest excess weight, high blood sugar, high blood pressure all suggest you are (or were) likely over-dependent on processed carbohydrates like wheat products. Your pattern would likely respond vigorously to reduction or elimination of these foods and weight loss. Niacin can help this pattern. In our experience, normalization of vitamin D is crucial.

  • Dave K

    11/26/2007 5:51:00 AM |

    Dr Davis,

    Few more data ....

    Some of the treatments have only been for the last 6 months or so.  The Statin was first (of course) and it took almost a year to get something I could tolerate.  The we talked about Vit D (700) and fish oil (800 Omega 3).  After a full Lipid scan around 9 months ago - we decided to add more fish oil.  So the full dosage I listed is only 6 months old or so.

    Also - I love my red wine and I know the number says two glasses and i rarely do two - so its three or four ... which might be my next step....

    From your last response, I assume the VLDL and IDL levels are the ones you would target hardest at this point.

    Don't do a lot of sugar or wheat... Do eat Oatmeal everyday with rasins or blueberries.

    Oh and my other question was with this kind of increase how long would you wait for the next scan?

  • Dr. Davis

    11/26/2007 12:08:00 PM |

    Dave-

    I generally recommend waiting a year after all identifiable causes have been corrected. However, given your minimal doses of vit D, I usually have my patients wait at least six month after vitamin D blood levels are corrected.

  • Dave

    11/26/2007 8:01:00 PM |

    Dr Davis,

    Thank you ... keep up the great work and I'll keep reading... and tracking.

    Dave

  • G

    11/27/2007 12:39:00 AM |

    Neeleesh and DR. D,

    This Canadian physician appears to have a lot of indepth awareness of the diff phenotypes. He suggests (in the author's response) that D2 may not work as well in East Indians (may worsen glycemic control) versus D3 (the more biologically active vitamin D). Very fascinating!!

    http://www.cfp.ca/cgi/reprint/53/9/1435
    Repletion of vitamin D with vitamin D2 is common
    practice, and vitamin D2 can be used safely when monitored
    to achieve normal levels of 25(OH)D. This might
    take 2 to 3 months, as discussed in your letter and in my
    paper, because the half-life is about 2 weeks. Using vitamin
    D3 (1000 to 5000 IU) daily, depending on the level
    of deficiency, will also achieve this goal. I also agree
    that the goal is to achieve levels of 25(OH)D higher than
    100 nmol/L, preferably 100 to 125 nmol/L.
    My concern regarding vitamin D2 is that it is a synthetic
    analogue and might interact with the vitamin D
    receptor differently in various cell systems. It has been
    reported that vitamin D3 might improve glycemic control.
    7 Vitamin D2 has been reported to cause worsening
    of glycemic control in people of East Indian descent.8
    Is this because of vitamin D receptor polymorphism, or
    because of enhanced 24-hydroxylase enzyme activation,
    or is it due to how vitamin D2 interacts with the receptor?
    Until this has been sorted out, I feel safest using
    vitamin D3. There are about 2000 synthetic analogues
    of vitamin D. The search is on for one that can cross the
    blood-brain barrier to treat certain types of brain cancers
    without causing hypercalcemia.9 But then again,
    what other effects would this compound have? There
    are still so many unknowns.
    The first step is to recognize that most Canadians
    do not get enough vitamin D, especially in the winter
    months, because of where we live. This recognition
    might reduce the need for expensive drugs to treat
    various conditions and might improve the well-being of
    many Canadians.
    An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.
    —Gerry Schwalfenberg MD CCFP
    Edmonton, Alta
    by e-mail

    here's the orig article which is one of the most excellent summaries I've seen so far -- great minds think alike -- they advise > 50ng/ml like DR. Davis as well!
    http://www.cfp.ca/cgi/reprint/53/5/841

  • Neelesh

    11/27/2007 4:05:00 AM |

    D,
    Interesting study indeed. Thanks for the information. I guess I have a lot of things to discuss with my cardiologist next week. Smile
    -Neelesh

  • chickadeenorth

    12/2/2007 11:16:00 PM |

    Hi to Gerry Schwalfenberg MD CCFP, do you know any Dr In Edtmn who practices Track your Plague, if so could you suggest names to help me. I live out by Jasper and need a skilled Dr in this treatment program, I would travel to Edtmn.Many thanks.
    chickadeenorth
    (hope its ok for me to ask this here)

  • cadoce66

    4/5/2008 8:37:00 PM |

    hi my aunts 63 yrs and she underwent an angioplasty with a medicated stent .. Shes on PLAVIX and her artery was 90% blocked and she had an evolving AWMI...
    Please advise what she should taketo prevent another blockage or heart attack!
    Thanks!

  • buy jeans

    11/3/2010 10:34:10 PM |

    So, Dave, please forgive your doctor his misunderstanding of the increase in your heart scan score. He is not alone in his ignorance of the data and parroting of the mainstream mis-information popular among the statin-is-the-answer-to-everything set.

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