The World Health Organization changed impaired fasting glucose levels from 6.9 to 6.1 in 1999.  The curve used to illustrate the incidence of diagnosed type 2 diabetes indicates a steepening at this time.  If data would have been collected for all patients prior to 1999 and utilized as a retrospective for type 2 diabetes in the population, the incidence rate prior to 1999 would likely have been significantly higher.

Very true, Dr. Davis.  Wheat consumption is up since 1970.  The strange thing is, it was much higher in the 19th century...something like 225 pounds per capita.

historical wheat consumption

Maybe we were eating fewer total carbs then, or expending more energy, if in fact the recent increase in diabetes is wheat-related.

I think since so much wheat is eaten in products that are mixtures of wheat, sugar, and vegetable oil, there's no way to know what the culprit is.

Well the reason is that wheat is the most important factor for our lives.

Hi, Anon--

Yes, indeed. Human life was different for at least rural people.

Also, wheat has changed. This is a crucial, crucial point that explains much of this phenomenon, I believe.

It would be interesting to plot diabetes rates against various possible culprits (pointing out on the graph when diagnostic cutoff changed): wheat, all carbohydrates, size of sodas, computer ownership, average size of restaurant meals, bicycle ownership, hours spent commuting, population older than 65, exposure to Agent Orange, service in Gulf War, and some really silly things like hair length and popular nailpolish colors.

If only wheat consumption seemed correlated, this would be suggestive.

Wre there ads for All Bran bars and wheat links on this site?

Wheat is ingrained in us, beginning with bread as the "staff of life."

correlation does not equal causation.

I don't eat wheat, I suffer from all of the problems you describe and it's also related to my psoriasis.  Good hypothesis with all your measurements of post consumption measurement of blood sugars, but someone needs to do a mass study.

The graph on this post is also very educational:
http://www.gnolls.org/1086/the-lipid-hypothesis-has-officially-failed-part-1-of-many/

The concentrations of zinc, iron, copper and magnesium remained stable between 1845 and the mid 1960s, but since then have decreased significantly, which coincided with the introduction of semi-dwarf, high-yielding cultivars.
at the same time
wheat breeding may have contributed to increased prevalence of celiac disease. and other conditions.
Perhaps other readers are not aware that MAGNESIUM deficiency increases iron absorption so there is increasing danger of Iron Behaving Badly and resulting damage to mitochondrial function.

Hi, Ted--

Great find!

I wasn't aware of these data. Yet another way that increased yield comes at a price.

Dramatic changes in the slope of a curve are easy to see if you're looking for them, but you've displayed an arithmetic, not a logarmitic axis.  Your point would be better made if you could switch the axis and if we still see the association between the variables.

Gretchen - Well said.

I think many things in our modern environment play a role in tipping the scales toward diabetes - including disrupted circadian cycles and environmental toxins, such as fire retardants, plasticizers, and pesticides.  (I don't have time right now to find links from stuff I've read on this - but try Googling these things - the research is there.)  

Jenny Ruhl claimed a short time ago that while prediabetes has risen, actual diabetes has not.  She is a good resource and I would take her arguments on most things diabetes pretty seriously.  Check her blog if interested:  Diabetes Update.  

As a mother of a kid with celiac disease, and for other reasons, I am hardly pro-wheat or pro-gluten, but I'm not convinced grains have caused a rise in diabetes.  My daughter's gastroenterologist, however, has Type I diabetes and says that eliminating gluten has greatly improved her glucose control.

When I eyeball this figure, it looks like the change occurs around 1993-1996.

Helen has a point that under counting of who is "pre-diabetic" is quite possible skewing the data. The CDC changed it's diabetes diagnosis criteria; 1985 wasn't when they did that however.

CDC took their raw 1995 - 1997 data and in 1998 decided to only use fasting glucose, and not the old standard oral glucose tolerance test, as the CDC diabetes template. For all individuals  whose data was showing greater than ( or equal to) 126 mg/dl fasting glucose they were then counted as diabetic by the CDC.

This methodology caused CDC to say U.S.A. diabetics went from 8 million in 1995 to 10.3 million diabetics in 1997; a statistically massive 2 year jump of diabetics. And furthermore, the number of un-diagnosed diabetics was claimed to have gone down (in same period of time); they cut out a whole slew of "pre-diabetics", so to speak.

The other criteria CDC website shows from 1998 is, that when non-fasting glucose hits 200  mg/dl (or more) they are considered diabetic. The reproduced graph Doc posted shows an exponential climb upward right at the time CDC  began using it's altered criteria.

"Note that, from 1958 until 1985, the curve was climbing slowly. After 1985, the curve shifted sharply upward."

As I look at the presented graph, from 1986 to about 1991 the trend decelerated slightly, then resumed its prior long-term value, then accelerated in about 1997

However, I must admit that 1997 is "after 1985."

Other suspects that became prevalent in the food stream in the 1980s were high-fructose corn syrup and artificial trans-fatty acids, both of which are linked to hepatic insulin resistance and metabolic syndrome.

I think of all the intelligent, scientifically-reasoned arguments all lead back to the commonsensical notion "Don't eat junk." To start, anything with enriched (aka processed) flour, partially hydrogenated oils, or high fructose corn syrup qualifies as junk. Which isn't to say all disease eminates from just those three ingredients, but I believe completely eliminating those three ingredients would yield a large health benefit to most Americans.

It takes years for type 2 diabetes to develop. A shift in the rate at which people are diagnosed with it would be caused by something that happened some time before the shift.

1960 to 1970 is also the time frame that chemical fertilizer came into the mainstream. On the farm I was raised on, along with chemical fertilizers came mineral supplements for the hogs that were living on the fertilized barley. They "failed to prosper" on fertilized barley, where they did just fine on unfertilized barley. By the why, fertilized barley produced over twice the volume of grain, and I assume the same mineral absorption. You can blame the grain, but I believe it could be the fertilizer.

@  justdoinglife
You can blame the grain, but I believe it could be the fertilizer.
Does early-life exposure to organophosphate insecticides lead to prediabetes and obesity?
Slotkin TA.

The chart for the growth of the national debt looks the exact same. I wonder if there is a correlation between the advance of socialism and the cultural ascendancy of the Lipid hypothesis? I'd bet the ranch that the destruction of American health and the destruction of the American economy is not a coincidence.

Duke university 2008 study fed new born rats 0.1 mg/kg body weight of the organophosphate pesticide parathion, for 4 days. When the rats were adults and fed a high fat diet they noticed a different response among the sexes.

In the adult females the high fat diet resulted in a 30% higher weight gain ( vs. high fat fed males' 10% weight gain) over controls (according to respective sex) on the same diet. This type of pesticide exposure to young children may be part of how obesity is rising; the standard western fare is high in generic fat content.

For the parathion early exposed adult male rats fed on a normal diet (ie: not high fat) the results also seem troubling. They gained weight, glucose levels rose, fat break down was inhibited and they were pre-diabetic; as compared to male controls.

Counter-intuitively, another group of male new born rats fed parathion at 0.2 mg/kg body weight (4 days) when fed a normal diet as male adults actually weighed less than their male controls. Whereas, the female rats (fed normal diet in this case) who got both 0.1 & 0.2 mg/kg parathion (4 days) all weighed less than their female controls. Mothers, don't try this at home.

Another culprit:

SSRIs.  Prozac was first marketed in 1988.  (It was not the first, however - some came on the market slightly earlier that decade.)  SSRIs impair glucose tolerance and are associated with an increased risk of diabetes.  

I think there are some modern-day smoking guns more convincing that increased grain consumption for increased obesity, insulin resistance, and risk of diabetes.  Although they are a neolithic food some of us may not be exquisitely adapted for, they have been around for 5,000 years, while the obesity epidemic is quite recent.

Hi Helen,
In 1938 there was a U.S.A. National Conference of Governmental Industrial Hygienists ; since 1941 the word national was replaced by "American" (ie: now is the ACGIH). 1946 the ACGIH set maximum limits on 148 compounds; which in 1956 became their "Threshold Limit Value", (TLV).

TLV is not saying "x" level is always safe; just what is supposedly tolerable exposure for most "healthy" adults. ACGIH lays their TLV data out for industrial hygenists to use in their field, not for laymen's general use.

2-butoxy-ethanol TLV (as a gas or evaporating vapor) is set at 20 ppm. This chemical is the favorite solvent in household spray and wipe cleaning products.

It makes me wonder if the U.S.A. adult female house cleaner suffers metabolic syndrome at a higher rate than other individuals. If so then might not close decades of breathing 2-butoxyethanol droplets have had/has epigenetic synergy?

1971 O.S.H.A. took 470 TLVs from ACGIH data and now calls those TLV by the phrase "Permissible Exposure Limit" (PEL). Meanwhile, as of 2010 there are 642 TLVs set out by ACGIH.

The European Union has a registry of 143,000 chemicals in use (or used); and there are +/- 50,000,000 chemicals known to exist (as per Chemical Abstract Service Registry). The EPA has more details; for searching if you're curios: www.epa.gov/grtlakes/toxteam.
pbtrept/pbtreport.htm

2012 the European Union is set to report on chemical testing of all chemicals manufactured in excess of 1,000 tons annually. You'll see that as data reported from "REACH" (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of Chemical Substances).

If you want to track down what chemical is in a product then search out the manufacturers "MSDS" (material safety data sheet). Some claim "trade secret" ingredients and then you can only guess on what is involved.

I love the triglyceride posts as I have been working on mine for a number of months.  Was well over 1000.  On low carb, virtually no grains, tricor (200mg), and a healthy dose of fish oil I was still at 233.  I am wondering if it will take my body/metabolism some time to heal before I can get lower.  As you might imagine I am sporting an HDL below 25.  I am working it diligently, have lost a ton of weight and get healthier by the day.  I should be sending Dr Davis a stipend for my improvement!

Dr. Davis,
please kick out of your spam filter the post I just sent on the 12th saying "Hi Helen,". It had resources for her interest in modern chemicals.

To Helen,
If my 12th post doesn't show up soon (2 days?) and you request it on this thread I will try to recreate it here. Maybe you've moved on to newer threads; I don't usually monitor old threads, but I will this for a few days.

Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like this ascent is going to slow down anytime soon.  Even if people in recent years seem to be taking a more health-savvy approach to their eating habits, it wouldn't be surprisingly to see this trend continue regardless.

Western countries have also seen a rise in sugar consumption along with wheat consumption over the same time period.

Taubes has just published a piece
"Is Sugar Toxic" and winds his way through diseases of Western cultures from sugar causing metabolic syndrome to sugar be implicated in cancer formation.
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/17/magazine/mag-17Sugar-t.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2&ref=magazine

No where was there any mention of wheat..I don't think we can isolate wheat as the primary culprit in Diseases of Civilization.  Wheat Plus Sugar, the double whammy.

Long time reader, first comment.
Thank you for so freely sharing all the information.

Marc

Thank you for this!  I have had this question for a long time given the number of things I take that "thin the blood."

As a veterinarian I've dispensed fish oil capsules for several years.  Some owners give so many that the dogs smell 'fishy' when seen for routine care.  The owner doesn't smell it since they're with the dog a lot.  The coats are gorgeous, something that doesn't often happen in Wyoming at 7000ft altitude.

Hi, Kevin--

My two Boston terriers jump for their fish oil capsules, two every day!

I'm glad to hear from a veterinarian that the coat sheen is indeed from the fish oil.

Due to an afib episode a couple of years ago, I was taking 20 mg of warfarin per day, plus around 5000 mg of EPA+DHA, and never had bleeding issues.  

My INR was always a stable 2.0.

As I've not had an afib reoccurrence, I've replaced the 20mg coumadin with 325mg aspirin daily, and still take around 5000 mg EPA+DHA.  No bleeding issues with that combo either.

Glad this topic came up.
Over the last 5 years, I've had to periodically eliminate my fish oil intake as I would start to bruise badly. My internist said she has seen this occasionally with fish oil and called it "capillary fragility." I bruise easily anyway, but it would really get bad with fish oil. So there must be some quality in fish oil that influences this.

Then about 6 months ago I started a strong supplement change to help with my low bone density--already taking magnesium and calcium but added:
Boron, K2, silica,pomegrantate juice, and BIG increase in vitamin D.
I also increased omegas to 3,000 a day which I was not able to tolerate before.

It has been over 4 months since I have had ANY bruise---which is just unheard of for me. I usually have 3-4 different bruises on arms/legs. So something in these supplements  strengthened my capillaries I guess, and I can now take high fish oil doses!
Anyone else had a bruising problem with fish oil?

Hi, Catherine--

Fascinating observation!

I'll bet it has something to do with the vitamin D, more than anything else. Vitamin D seems to strengthen structural tissues in bones, muscle, heart valves, and perhaps capillaries and other small blood vessels.

Several years ago I bruised easily for a while and attributed it to taking garlic supplements daily.  I started taking Vit C and the bruising stopped.  I don't think it had to do with fish oil (in my case); I don't think I was taking fish oil at the time.

I too achieve rapid blood thinning when taking 2400mg of EPA/DHA per day. That's only 4 pharmaceutical grade capsules. Even after my vitamin d levels were normalized I still got bruising.

I now take Vitamin K2 (MK-7 natto extract) twice a week and it's allowed me to bump my EPA/DHA up to 3600mg with no ill effects or bruising.

It was either supplement or eat a lot of aged cheese, they both seemed to do the trick in my particular case.

Thank you for sharing this study with us.  It helps clarify whether there is a risk for blood thinning from taking fish oils.  This information may help individuals who are taking blood thinning medications and considering adding fish oils to their daily diet.

Catherine,

Without a doubt, your cessation of bruising was due to vitamin k2. I routinely take nattokinase, large doses of fish oil, curcumin, and other blood thinning agents, and if I don't take vitamin K2, I will begin bruising. (I also take high doses of Vitamin D). When I take K2, I have absolutely no bruising.

Vitamin K2 has many clinical trials showing that it helps endothelium  integrity and elasticity.

Also, grapeseed extract and pine bark extract (specifically oligomeric proanthcyanins) has the same beneficial effect.

Daniel,

That's really interesting! There is a lot of research on K2's effect on strengthening weak bones. Bone fractures go down considerably when high doses of K2 are used (Japan is using K2 as osteoporosis treatment) BUT studies show it needs to be in conjunction with adequate calcium and Vitamin D---they work synergistically for bone strength.  So it makes sense that K2 and D could do the same with strengthening fragile capillaries. I am also taking the M7 natto form.

Dave,

Thanks for sharing your experience with this, you've really confirmed it now for me.  I can't believe I have suffered with this for most of my life with no answers (tried high dose Vit C, grape seed, etc) and now within months on K2, there's no bruising and I can tolerate fish oil. Hope my bones are responding this well!
This blog is so helpful....

Thanks for posting this. The question recently came up in our office. I like your assertion that omega-3s restore the blood to normal and remove abnormal clotting. And to comment on a post above, our dog has a beautifully shiny coat and takes 2 pure EPA capsules each day!

I have enjoyed reading That During nearly 3 years of observation, there was no excess of bleeding events in the group taking fish oil. (In fact, the group not taking fish oil had more bleeding events, though the difference fell short of achieving statistical significance.

I've been drinking fish oil for many year and I don't have any chance in my body people use to said me that but I think it is just a rumor.

I'm also especially gratified that a woman now holds our record. I'm uncertain why, but the ladies have been shy and the men remain the dominant and vocal participants in our program. Speak up, ladies!

I haven't heard of this problem
fish oil supplements. But now we know what to tell them when this sort of concern comes up. Fish oil or Omega-3 is really beneficial to health. It's just important that it comes from clean waters.

What is an appropriate dose of fish oil for someone taking coumadin?

Dr. Davis, when  person is taking Tamoxifen...
(1) is it safe to take vitamin k2 or K1?
(2) will fish oil have a role in preventing blood clots?