I'll supply the tar if you supply the feathers

The results of the latest Heart Scan Blog poll are in.


DIRECT-TO-CONSUMER PHARMACEUTICAL ADVERTISING HAS:

Increased public awareness of medical conditions and their treatment
19 (11%)

Has had little overall effect on health and healthcare
29 (18%)

Needlessly increased healthcare costs
81 (50%)

Further empowered the revenue-obsessed pharmaceutical industry
130 (81%)


Clearly, there's a lot of negative sentiment against direct-to-consumer (DTC) drug advertising.

It looks as if a small minority believe that good has come from DTC advertising, judging by the meager 11% who voted for increased awareness. In fact, the poll results are heavily weighed towards the negative: 50% voted for "needlessly increased healthcare costs," while an astounding 81% voted for "empowered the revenue-obsessed pharmaceutical industry."

It is, indeed, an odd situation: Pharmaceutical agents available only by prescription being hyped directly to the consumer.

Personally, I would vote for choices 1,3, and 4. While awareness has increased, it has come with a hefty price, not all of it well spent. I believe the pharmaceutical industry still adheres to the rule that, for every $1 spent on advertising, $4 is made in revenue. They are, in effect, printing money.

What goes up can't come down

According to conventional wisdom, heart scan scores cannot be reduced.

In other words, say you begin with a heart scan score of 300. Conventional wisdom says you should take aspirin and a statin drug, eat a low-fat "heart healthy" diet, and take high blood pressure medications, if necessary.

If your heart scan score goes up in a year or two, especially at an annual rate of 20% or more, then you are at very high risk for heart attack. If the heart scan score stays the same, then your risk is much reduced. These observations are well-established.

But more than 99% of physicians will tell you that reducing your heart scan score is impossible. Don't even try: Heart scan scores can go up, but they can't go down.

Baloney. Heart scan scores can indeed go down. And they can go down dramatically.

It is true that, following conventional advice like taking a statin drug, following a low-fat diet, and taking aspirin will fail to reduce your heart scan score. A more rational approach that 1) identifies all causes of coronary plaque, 2) corrects all causes while including crucial strategies like omega-3 fatty acid supplementation, vitamin D supplementation, and thyroid function normalization, is far more likely to yield a halt or reduction in score.

While not everybody who undertakes the Track Your Plaque program will succeed in reducing their heart scan score, a growing number are enjoying success.

A small portion of our experience was documented this past summer. (I collected and analyzed the data with the help of Rush University nutrition scientist, Dr. Susie Rockway, and statistician, Dr. Mary Kwasny.)


Effect of a combined therapeutic approach of intensive lipid management, omega-3 fatty acid supplementation, and increased serum 25 (OH) vitamin D on coronary calcium scores in asymptomatic adults.

Davis W, Rockway S, Kwasny M.

The impact of intensive lipid management, omega-3 fatty acid, and vitamin D3 supplementation on atherosclerotic plaque was assessed through serial computed tomography coronary calcium scoring (CCS). Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol reduction with statin therapy has not been shown to reduce or slow progression of serial CCS in several recent studies, casting doubt on the usefulness of this approach for tracking atherosclerotic progression. In an open-label study, 45 male and female subjects with CCS of > or = 50 without symptoms of heart disease were treated with statin therapy, niacin, and omega-3 fatty acid supplementation to achieve low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides < or = 60 mg/dL; high-density lipoprotein > or = 60 mg/dL; and vitamin D3 supplementation to achieve serum levels of > or = 50 ng/mL 25(OH) vitamin D, in addition to diet advice. Lipid profiles of subjects were significantly changed as follows: total cholesterol -24%, low-density lipoprotein -41%; triglycerides -42%, high-density lipoprotein +19%, and mean serum 25(OH) vitamin D levels +83%. After a mean of 18 months, 20 subjects experienced decrease in CCS with mean change of -14.5% (range 0% to -64%); 22 subjects experienced no change or slow annual rate of CCS increase of +12% (range 1%-29%). Only 3 subjects experienced annual CCS progression exceeding 29% (44%-71%). Despite wide variation in response, substantial reduction of CCS was achieved in 44% of subjects and slowed plaque growth in 49% of the subjects applying a broad treatment program.

Gretchen's postprandial diet experiment

Gretchen sent me the results of a little experiment she ran on herself. She measured blood glucose and triglycerides after 1) a low-fat diet and 2) a low-carb diet.









Gretchen describes her experience:

Several years ago I received a windfall of triglyceride strips that would expire in a week or so. I hated to waste them, so I decided to use them to test my triglyceride and BG responses to two different diets: low carb and low fat.

The first day I followed a low-fat diet. For breakfast I ate a lot of carbohydrate, including 1 oz of spaghetti cooked al dente and ¾ cup of white rice. For the rest of the day I ate less carbohydrate but continued to eat low fat.

The second day I followed a low-carb diet. For breakfast I ate a lot of fat, including a sausage, mushrooms fried in butter, 2 slices of bacon, and ¼ cup of the creamy topping of whole-milk yogurt. For the rest of the day I ate less fat, especially less saturated fat, but continued to eat low carb.

Both days I measured both BG and triglyceride levels every hour until I went to bed. On the low-carb day I had 3 meals. On the low-fat day, I was constantly hungry, had 4 meals, and kept snacking.

You can see the results in Figure 1. On the low-fat diet, after a “healthy” low-fat breakfast of low-glycemic pasta with low-fat sauce, my BG levels shot up to over 200 mg/dL and took more than 6 hours to come down. My triglycerides, however, remained low, and at first I thought perhaps the low-fat diet might be better overall. However, after about 6 hours, the triglyceride levels started to increase steadily, and by the next morning, they were higher than they had been the day before.
On the low-carb diet, my BG levels stayed low all day. However, after meals, the triglyceride levels skyrocketed. After meals they came down, and by the next morning they were lower than they had been the day before.

As I interpret these results, the high triglyceride levels after eating the high-fat meals represent chylomicrons, the lipoproteins that transport fat from your meals to the cells of your body. The high triglyceride levels the morning after eating the low-fat meals represent very low density lipoprotein, which takes the cholesterol your liver synthesizes when your intake of dietary cholesterol is low and distributes it to cells that need it, or again, to the fat for storage.

There are several interesting factors to consider here. First, when you have a lipid test done at the lab, it’s usually done fasting, which means first thing in the morning after not eating for 8 to 12 hours. It tells you nothing about what your triglyceride levels were all day.

Second, the low-carb diet resulted in lower fasting triglyceride levels, but much higher postprandial triglyceride levels. Which are more dangerous? I’m afraid I don’t know. You should also note that the high-fat, low-carb breakfast was extremely high in fat, including saturated fat. I don’t normally eat that much fat but wanted to test extremes.

Third, although the low-fat diet didn’t produce the very high postprandial triglyceride levels that the high-fat diet did, it produced extremely high BG levels that persisted for 6 hours. Some people think that it’s oxidized and glycated lipids that are the dangerous ones, so high BG levels and normal triglyceride levels might be more dangerous than very high triglyceride levels and normal BG levels. Note that high BG levels also contribute to oxidation rates.

Fourth, this shows the results of an experiment with a sample size of one. My physiology might not be typical. If you want to know how your own body’s lipids respond to different types of diets, you should get a lipid meter and test yourself. Unfortunately, your insurance is unlikely to want to pay for this, so it will be an expensive experiment.

The main point of this is that the results of different diets are complex. We have to eat. And what we eat can affect many different systems in our bodies. Finding the ideal diet that matches our own physiology and results in the best lipid levels as well as BG levels is a real challenge.



This was a lot of effort for one person. Thanks to Gretchen for sharing her interesting experience.

Gretchen makes a crucial point: Some of the effects of diet changes evolve over time, much as triglyceride levels changed substantially for her on the day following her experiment. Wouldn't it be interesting to see how postprandial patterns develop over time if levels were observed sequentially, day after day?

The stark contrast in blood sugars is impressive--Low-carb clearly has the advantage here. Are there manipulations in diet composition in low-carb meals that we can make to blunt the early (3-6 hour) postprandial lipoprotein (triglyceride) peak? That's a topic we will consider in future.

More of Gretchen's thoughts can be found at:

http://wildlyfluctuating.blogspot.com
http://www.healthcentral.com/diabetes/c/5068

After-eating effects: Carbohydrates vs. fats

In the ongoing debate over whether it's fat or carbohydrate restriction that leads to weight loss and health, here's another study from the Oxford group examining the postprandial (after-eating) effects of a low-fat vs. low-carbohydrate diet. (Roberts R et al, 2008; full-text here.)

High-carbohydrate was defined as 15% protein; 10% fat; 75% carbohydrate (by calories), with starch:sugar 70:30.

High-fat was defined as 15% protein; 40% fat; 45% carbohydrate, with starch:sugar 70:30. (Yes, I know. By our standards, the "high-fat" diet was moderate-fat, moderate-carbohydrate--too high in carbohydrates.)

Blood was drawn over 6 hours following the test meal.




Roberts R et al. Am J Clin Nutr 2008

The upper left graph is the one of interest. Note that, after the high-carbohydrate diet (solid circles), triglyceride levels are twice that occurring after the high-fat diet (open circles). Triglycerides are a surrogate for chylomicron and VLDL postprandial lipoproteins; thus, after the high-carbohydrate diet, postprandial particles are present at much higher levels than after the high-fat diet. (It would have been interesting to have seen a true low-carbohydrate diet for comparison.) Also note that, not only are triglyceride levels higher after high-carbohydrate intake, but they remain sustained at the 6-hour mark, unlike the sharper decline after high-fat.

It's counterintuitive: Postprandial lipoproteins, you'd think, would be plentiful after ingesting a large quantity of fat, since fat must be absorbed via chylomicrons into the bloodstream. But it's carbohydrates (and obesity, a huge effect; more on that in future) that figure most prominently in determining the pattern and magnitude of postprandial triglycerides and lipoproteins. Much of this effect develops by way of de novo lipogenesis, the generation of new lipoproteins like VLDL after carbohydrate ingestion.

We also see this in our Track Your Plaque experience. Rather than formal postprandial meal-testing, we use intermediate-density lipoprotein (IDL) as our surrogate for postprandial measures. A low-carbohydrate diet reduces IDL dramatically, as do omega-3 fatty acids from fish oil.

The Paleo approach to meal frequency

Furthering our discussion of postprandial (after-eating) phenomenona, including chylomicron and triglyceride "stacking" (Grazing is for cattle and Triglyceride and chylomicron stacking), here's a comment from the recent Palet Diet Newsletter on the closely related issue, meal timing and frequency:


We are currently in the process of compiling meal times and patterns in the worlds historically studied hunter-gatherers. If any single picture is beginning to emerge, it clearly is not three meals per day plus snacking ala the typical U.S. grazing pattern. Here are a few examples:

--The Ingalik Hunter Gatherers of Interior Alaska: 'As has been made clear, the principal meal and sometimes the only one of the day is eaten in the evening.'
--The Guayaki (Ache) Hunter Gatherers of Paraguay: 'It seems, however, that the evening meal is the most consistent of the day. This is understandable, since the day is generally spent hunting for food that will be eaten in the evening."
--The Kung Hunter Gatherers of Botswana. "Members move out of camp each day individually or in small groups to work through the surrounding range and return in the evening to pool the collected resources for the evening meal."
--Hawaiians, Tahitians, Fijians and other Oceanic peoples (pre-westernization). 'Typically, meals, as defined by Westerners, were consumed once or twice a day. . . Oliver (1989) described the main meal, usually freshly cooked, as generally eaten in the late afternoon after the day’s work was over."

The most consistent daily eating pattern that is beginning to emerge from the ethnographic literature in hunter-gatherers is that of a large single meal which was consumed in the late afternoon or evening. A midday meal or lunch was rarely or never consumed and a small breakfast (consisting of the remainders of the previous evening meal) was sometimes eaten. Some snacking may have occurred during daily gathering, however the bulk of the daily calories were taken in the late afternoon or evening. This pattern of eating could be described as intermittent fasting relative to the typical Western pattern, particularly when daily gathering or hunting were unsuccessful or marginal. There is wisdom in the ways of our hunter gatherer ancestors, and perhaps it is time to re-think three squares a day.



In other words, the notion of "grazing," or eating small meals or snacks throughout the day, is an unnatural situation. It is directly contrary to the evolutionarily more appropriate large meal followed by periods of no eating or small occasional meals.

I stress this point because I see that the notion of grazing has seized hold of many people's thinking. In my view, grazing is a destructive practice that is self-indulgent, unnecessary, and simply fulfills the perverse non-stop hunger impulse fueled by modern carbohydrate foods.

Eliminate wheat, cornstarch, and sugars and you will find that grazing is a repulsive impulse that equates with gorging.


The full-text of the Paleo Diet Newsletter can be obtained through www.ThePaleoDiet.com. You can also read and/or subscribe to the new Paleo Diet Blog, just launched in November, 2009.

Even mummies do it


Lady Rai, nursemaid to Queen Nefertari of Egypt, died in 1530 BC, somewhere between the age of 30 and 40 years. Her mummy is preserved in the Egyptian National museum of Antiquities in Cairo.

A CT scan of her thoracic aorta revealed calcium, representing aortic atherosclerosis, reported by Allam et al (including my friend from The Wisconsin Heart Hospital, Dr. Sam Wann, who provided me a blow-by-blow tale of this really fascinating project). Ladi Rai and 14 other Egyptian mummies were found to have vascular calcification of a total of 22 mummies scanned. (The hearts of the mummies were too degenerated to make out any coronary calcium.)

But why would people of that age have developed atherosclerosis?

The authors of the study comment that "Our findings that atherosclerosis was not infrequent among middle-aged and older ancient Egyptians of high social status challenges the view that it is a disease of modern humans. . . Although ancient Egyptians did not smoke tobacco or eat processed food or presumably lead sedentary lives, they were not hunter-gatherers. [Emphasis mine.] Agriculture was well established in ancient Egypt and meat consumption appers to have been common among those of high social status."

Fascinating. But I don't think that I'd blame meat consumption. Egyptians were also known to have cultivated grains, including wheat, and frequently consumed such sweet delicacies as dates and figs. Egyptians were also apparently beer drinkers. Unfortunately, no beer steins were seen in any of the scans.

Life Extension article on iodine

Here's a link to my recent article in Life Extension Magazine on iodine:

Halt on Salt Sparks Iodine Deficiency

Iodized salt, a concept introduced into the U.S. by the FDA in 1924, slowly eliminated goiter (enlarged thyroid glands), along with an enormous amount of thyroid disease, heart attack, mental impairment, and death. The simple addition of iodine to salt ensured that salt-using Americans obtained enough iodine sufficient to not have a goiter.

Now that the FDA, goiters long forgotten from their memories, urges Americans to reduce salt, what has happened to our iodine?

I talk at length about this issue in the Life Extension article.

The healthiest people are the most iodine deficient

Here's an informal observation.

The healthiest people are the most iodine deficient.

The healthier you are, the more likely you are to:

--Avoid junk foods--30% of which have some iodine from salt
--Avoid overuse of iodized salt
--Exercise--Sweating causes large losses of iodine.

So the healthy-eating, exercising person is the one most likely to show iodine deficiency: gradually enlarged thyroid gland (in the neck), declining thyroid function. Over time, if iodine deficiency persists, excessive sensitivity to iodine develops, as well as abnormal thyroid conditions like overactive nodules.

Even subtle levels of thyroid dysfunction act as a potent coronary risk factor.

It's the score, stupid

Sal has had 3 heart scans. (He was not on the Track Your Plaque program.) His scores:

March, 2006: 439

April, 2007: 573

October, 2009: 799

Presented with the 39% increase from April, 2007 to October, 2009, Sal's doctor responded, "I don't understand. Your LDL cholesterol is fine."

This is the sort of drug-driven, cholesterol-minded thinking that characterizes 90% of primary care and cardiologists' practices: "Cholesterol is fine; therefore, you must be fine, too."

No. Absolutely not.

The data are clear: Heart scan scores that continue to increase at this rate predict high risk for cardiovascular events. Unfortunately, when my colleagues hear this, they respond by scheduling a heart catheterization to prevent heart attack--a practice that has never been shown to be effective and, in my view, constitutes malpractice (i.e., performing heart procedures in people with no symptoms and with either no stress test or a normal stress test).

It's the score, stupid! It's not the LDL cholesterol. Pay attention to the increasing heart scan score and you will know that the disease is progressing at an alarming rate. Accepting this fact will set you and your doctor on the track to ask "Why?"

That's when you start to uncover all the dozens of other reasons that plaque can grow that have nothing to do with LDL cholesterol or statin drugs.
Tim Russert's heart scan score 210. . .in 1998

Tim Russert's heart scan score 210. . .in 1998

Despite the media blathering over how Mr. Russert's tragic death from heart attack could not have been predicted, it turns out that he had undergone a heart scan several years ago.

A New York Times article, A Search for Answers in Russert’s Death, reported:

Given the great strides that have been made in preventing and treating heart disease, what explains Tim Russert’s sudden death last week at 58 from a heart attack?

The answer, at least in part, is that although doctors knew that Mr. Russert, the longtime moderator of “Meet the Press” on NBC, had coronary artery disease and were treating him for it, they did not realize how severe the disease was because he did not have chest pain or other telltale symptoms that would have justified the kind of invasive tests needed to make a definitive diagnosis. In that sense, his case was sadly typical: more than 50 percent of all men who die of coronary heart disease have no previous symptoms, the American Heart Association says.

It is not clear whether Mr. Russert’s death could have been prevented. He was doing nearly all he could to lower his risk. He took blood pressure pills and a statin drug to control his cholesterol, he worked out every day on an exercise bike, and he was trying to lose weight, his doctors said on Monday. And still it was not enough.

“What is surprising,” Dr. Newman said, “is that the severity of the anatomical findings would not be predicted from his clinical situation, the absence of symptoms and his performing at a very high level of exercise.”


Buried deeper in this article, the fact that Mr. Russert had a heart scan score of 210 in 1998 is revealed.

That bit of information is damning. Readers of The Heart Scan Blog know that heart scan scores are expected to grow at a rate of 30% per year. This would put Mr. Russert's heart scan score at 2895 in 2008. But the two doctors providing care for Mr. Russert were advising the conventional treatments: prescribing cholesterol drugs, blood pressure medication, managing blood sugar, and doing periodic stress tests.

Conventional efforts usually slow the progression of heart scan scores to 14-24% per year. Let's assume the rate of increase was only 14% per year. That would put Mr. Russert's 2008 score at 779.

A simple calculation from known information in 1998 clearly, obviously, and inarguably predicted his death. Recall that heart scan scores of 1000 or greater are associated with annual--ANNUAL--risk for heart attack and death of 20-25% if no preventive action is taken. The meager prevention efforts taken by Mr. Russert's doctors did indeed reduce risk modestly, but it did not eliminate risk.

We know that growing plaque is active plaque. Active plaque means rupture-prone plaque. Rupture prone plaque means continuing risk for heart attack and death. Heart attack and death means the approach used in Mr. Russert was a miserable failure.

While the press blathers on about how heart disease is a tragedy, as Mr. Russert's doctors squirm under the fear of criticism, the answers have been right here all alone. It sometimes takes a reminder like Mr. Russert's tragic passing to remind us that tracking plaque is a enormously useful, potentially lifesaving approach to coronary heart disease.

Who needs to go next? Matt Lauer, Oprah, Jay Leno, some other media personality? Someone close to you? Can this all happen right beneath the nose of your doctor, even your cardiologist?

I don't need to remind readers of The Heart Scan Blog that heart disease is 1) measurable, 2) trackable, 3) predictable. Mr. Russert's future was clear as long ago as 1998. Every year that passed, his future became clearer and clearer, yet his doctors fumbled miserably.



Copyright 2008 William Davis, MD

Comments (10) -

  • Richard A.

    6/18/2008 4:51:00 AM |

    "He also had a dangerous combination of other risk factors: high triglycerides, a type of fat in the blood, and a low level of HDL, the “good cholesterol” that can help the body get rid of the bad cholesterol that can damage arteries."

    I wonder if he was taking fish oil supplements to try to drive down his triglycerides and niacin to prop up his HDL?

  • Anonymous

    6/18/2008 5:36:00 AM |

    I had a 234 score in 2005 and a 419 score in 2007 - if it wasn't for resources like TYP - I wouldn't have pushed my Dr with questions about Vit D and CQ 10 and Fish Oil...  sit waiting for the next scan to see if things are under control (now - small LDL-P 123 nmol/L).

    Just think if Tim R had the time to do a bit of research himself and found TYP - but that is what your physicans should be doing for you.... growing... learning... but as an engineer, I know the spectrum of people calling themselves engineers is a large spectrum... so it is with MDs.

    Thanks for what you do Dr D.

    Dave

  • Dr. William Davis

    6/18/2008 11:53:00 AM |

    Yes. Fish oil alone could have cut his risk of sudden cardiac death by 45%. It would have cost him all of $3 per month.

  • Anonymous

    6/18/2008 3:09:00 PM |

    I have been wondering if the trans-Atlantic flight several days before his death could have had something to do with it...

  • Anonymous

    6/18/2008 5:08:00 PM |

    Dr Davis I just wonder what you think of this Dr. Mehmet(?) Oz who keeps popoing up on television and writing books talking about the same old stuff, low fat, high carbs blah blah blah . . . I think since Mr. Russerts death I've seen him on tv 3 times and NOT ONCE has he mentioned calcium scoring, vitamin D, fish oil . . .

  • Anonymous

    6/19/2008 3:45:00 AM |

    What a tragedy.  All week long I have been asking myself how such a smart man could be so uninformed about his own health?

    With all the resources at Mr. Russert's disposal, I would think he could have easily learned more about his condition, and the measures he might have taken to save himself.  [Then too, he might have also come across the Track Your Plaque website... or the book.]  Instead, he was apparently greatly trusting of his internist and cardiologist, and perhaps thought he was receiving optimal medical management... and nothing more could be done?

    Beyond that, I wonder about his Vitamin D status, and whether he was dehydrated from the long flight back from Europe?  I also wonder if the emotional stresses (good and bad) of a quick trip to Europe, his son's graduation from college, and having recently placed his beloved father into a care home, on top of what could only be termed a stressful and grueling work life (no matter how much he may have loved it) might have lead his body to the tipping point on that day.   I suppose we are unlikely to have these answers under the circumstances.

    R.I.P. Mr. Russert, but shame, shame, shame on your physicians, IMO they really let you down.

    Thanks for this truthful blog, an antidote to all the media nonsense and C.Y.A. I have seen in the past few days.

    Terri
    madcook

  • sschein

    6/23/2008 5:36:00 PM |

    My wife has been to Dr. Michael Newman the internist for Tim Russert.  I don't think she is going back.  I had Angioplasty about 10 years ago with stents put in my right and left artery.  Since then I have the thallium stress test every year, take 1500 mg's of niaspan a day, Lipitor, a blood pressure lowering drug, and aspirin.  Both my cardiologist, and my internist state that a heart scan would not do me any good, and my cardiologist stated that the heart scan would simply confuse the issues.  Are they right? Would the heart scan harm me?  If so, how?

  • Anonymous

    6/25/2008 5:18:00 PM |

    In response to the comment by sschein, I'm not sure it's such a great idea to have a thallium stress test every year.  You should probably investigate the possibility of a CT-angiogram.  

    I am not a doctor so I don't want you to think I'm defending them, but there's only so much that a doctor can do in the office visit environment.  It's really up to the patient to do the research and decide on what he believes is the best course of treatment for him or herself and then try to bring the doctor around to his point.  In my own case I refuse to have a thallium stress test and have finally decided to have a 320 slice CT-angiogram when I go to Boston next month.  My cardiologist may not agree that it's the choice he'd choose, but he's going along with it.  Quite simply they don't have the time to convince the patient one way or the other.  We really don't know all the details about Tim Russert's care.  If he had his own private physician who tended only to him or who was consulted extensively I'd probably expect better.  As just one patient (admittedly a famous one) I'm not sure how much you can expect from a doctor.  If he suggests a stress test or an angiogram and you think better of the idea, it's up to the patient to chart his own course.

    Andy (the164club) TYP member

  • Jeffrey Dach MD

    7/1/2008 11:38:00 AM |

    Tim Russert and George Carlin

    Two beloved American celebrities have succumbed to heart disease before their time.  The national response has been disappointment in a medical system that could allow this to happen.  What could have been done differently to save the lives of both Tim and George, to avoid this fatal outcome?

    To read more...Saving Tim Russert and George Carlin by Jeffrey Dach MD


    Jeffrey Dach MD
    4700 Sheridan Suite T
    Hollywood FL 33021
    my web site

  • buy jeans

    11/3/2010 6:54:38 PM |

    A simple calculation from known information in 1998 clearly, obviously, and inarguably predicted his death. Recall that heart scan scores of 1000 or greater are associated with annual--ANNUAL--risk for heart attack and death of 20-25% if no preventive action is taken. The meager prevention efforts taken by Mr. Russert's doctors did indeed reduce risk modestly, but it did not eliminate risk.

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